Gambling: NBA’s road warriors offer betting opportunity
The hometown Denver Nuggets are off Friday, but the NBA has plenty of other action. We have a nine-game slate and some interesting trends to analyze.
The main one is road teams playing on the tail end of a back-to-back series. This is normally a checkmark against teams as rest is worth at least a point or two vs. playing on no rest. The same could be said for teams playing on the road, even if we see that number being slightly less this year. Both are situations that more often lead to losses, but about 45% of teams in either situation still win, so it’s not a death blow. Friday perfectly illustrates how relying on one trend or indicator is never the ideal way to bet NBA games. Here is why:
The Clippers are great on back-to-backs
In one of the strangest stats of the season, the Los Angeles Clippers are currently 5-0 on the end of back-to-backs. They play the Memphis Grizzlies for the second time in two days Friday, so this is a trend worth looking into. The Clippers are known for sitting Kawhi Leonard on one end of the back-to-back games. It was not always the back end game he played though, so that alone does not explain the record. Road teams on the tail end of a back-to-back have only won 44% of the games they have played this year. The Clippers defy that number, winning all three of their tail-end road games with a point differential of almost 20. Small sample sizes are not always the best indicators, but the Clippers do seem to be ready to play in these situations. It’s been a mistake to bet against them.
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The Sacramento Kings are not great on back-to-backs
It’s tough to talk about backing a road team on the tail end of the back-to-back in one paragraph as being a good idea and then arguing against a different team doing the same thing here. Not all teams are created equal, though.
Winning at the end of a back-to-back is tough. It happened just 44% of the time this year. Winning on the road is tough. That has only happened in 46% of games this year.
Winning has been even harder if you are wearing a Sacramento Kings jersey, as they have won just 38% of their games this season and that percentage is slightly lower on the road. Detroit is not a good team, and that is why you can find them as an underdog.
Sacramento may win this game, but no team winning under 40% of their games in two negative situations where other teams have lost more than 54% of the time deserves to be a favorite. Bettors should not mind taking a shot on the underdog here.