The number of COVID variant cases in Colorado is ticking upward, and public health experts say the state must move to dole out vaccines while simultaneously holding those variants at bay until broad, population-wide protections are reached.

There have been more than 570 variant cases identified in Colorado thus far; 336 of those are cases of the United Kingdom variant, which is known to be more transmissable than the conventional COVID strain. What’s more, there have now been 11 cases of the South African variant, which was first identified a little over a week ago. All but one of those cases have been tied to the Buena Vista prison, and that outlier case is still being investigated but is in the same geographic area.

Modeling by the University of Colorado indicates that, should infection control measures — like masking — drop and if the variants continue to spread, then hospitalizations and deaths could radically increase in the coming weeks. At a press conference Tuesday, Jon Samet, the dean of the Colorado School of Public Health and the head of the state modeling team, said the state needs to keep its current level of infection control for several more weeks. 

“We certainly have seen the prevalence (of variants) increase over time,” said Rachel Herlihy, the state’s epidemiologist. Still, that increased prevalence is still below grim projections made by Samet’s team earlier this month.

The general rule of thumb has been that cases begin to tick upward two weeks after an initial burst of exposure; hospitalizations go up two weeks after that, and mortality follows weeks later. Each week that Coloradans hold the line and allow more people to be vaccinated, Samet said, translates to fewer cases, deaths and hospitalizations; that’s particularly true for these variants, which are often more transmissable, and some are believed to potentially be more deadly.

Samet said that should the state hold its current levels of infection control for four more weeks, 700 deaths can be avoided. Fifteen hundred deaths can be avoided between now and June if the United Kingdom variant is kept in check and if people continue following public health measures.

Herlihy told reporters Tuesday that the state has significantly increased its surveillance program that’s monitoring the spread of the variants. The state is now sequencing — checking for variants — between 300 and 400 samples per week, which is roughly double its previous capabilities. That means the state is hitting its target of testing 5% of its positive COVID samples for variants; that 5% figure is what the state needs to hit to more effectively monitor those strains, experts have said.

Of those samples being sequences, between 8% and 10% are testing positive for the UK variant, Herhily said. At least 20% are testing positive for the California variant.

Overall, the COVID situation here has plateaued, Samet and Herlihy said. While it’s a definite improvement from the fall surge, it’s still a “high plateau,” Herlihy said, that’s still well above the lows of summer 2020. Hospitalizations have ticked upward in recent days, though it’s too soon to tell if that’s an aberration or the beginnings of a worrying trend.

“There’s good news here in that this epidemic curve has been going down, down, down progressively since December,” Samet said, “and then a cautionary note here as to whether this (recent increase) is just noise … or if we’re seeing an uptick. This we can’t answer at the moment, we need to keep watching.”

The good news, they said, is that the benefits of vaccinations are beginning to reveal themselves, particularly for the oldest Coloradans. Both cases and hospitalizations for those 70 and older have taken a downward turn since the state begin doling out doses to those people.

Despite the risk posed by the variants, Gov. Jared Polis said at the press conference Tuesday that the state will “devolve” public health responsibilities to Colorado’s counties; more information on that will be released next week, he said. 

“I think the default will becoming going into the county level relatively soon, in the next few weeks,” Polis said. ” .. (The state’s) emergency is preventing hospitals from exceeding their capacity. We’ve done that successfully. … The danger of exceeding our hospital capacity is rapidly decreasing.” 

The projections made by Samet’s modeling team indicate that the situation here could dramatically deteriorate should variants become more common and if public health measures are loosened or ignored. Still, the state loosened up its framework for determining what measures counties must have in place.

Asked if the variants’ potential has given the state pause on that loosening, Herlihy said the variants remain “the challenge before us” and that masking will remain important in keeping them in check.

Asked about his mask mandate, which has been extended into April, Polis said that it will “be important for people to wear masks for the next few weeks and months.” But as he hasn’t in several recent press conferences, Polis didn’t provide an exact timeline of when he might end the mandate. He did say that “as people are vaccinated … it’s not as important to wear a mask.”

Polis has said, and he reiterated this Tuesday, that the general public will become eligible for the vaccine in mid-April and that all Coloradans who want a vaccine will have been able to receive one by the end of May. 

“By this summer, I’m excited that things will be relatively back to normal,” he said Tuesday.