The NBA season is coming to an end. Players, coaches and gamblers can all see the light at the end of the tunnel right now. We are down to about five or six games left for most teams in the regular season. This is one of the toughest times of year to bet on NBA games because there is no way to quantify a team’s motivation. You will start to see this over the course of the next few days as teams are either eliminated or lock themselves into certain playoff positions. You have already seen spreads starting to adjust to this as well.

It is easy to say, Team A is going to win because they need to win to keep their playoff standing, but remember, a win and a win against the spread (ATS) are two very different things. Teams may be motivated to win games, but when spreads start creeping up into the double digits it gets a lot tougher to swallow those numbers. This is true of random everyday games and the futures market. The latter is what needs discussing, because some people seem to have forgotten how the playoff schedule has changed. 

The problem with the current futures market is it doesn’t seem to be based in the new normal of the playoff situation. This year, the NBA has added a tenth team to the playoff hunt. Last season, the teams finishing eighth and ninth had a play-in game to see who would move on to the big tournament. This year, they extended that to the seventh seed also having to face the 10th seed for the right to move on. Currently in the West, the Lakers are half a game up on the Trail Blazers for that coveted sixth seed spot to avoid the play in round. The Lakers have seven games remaining and the Blazers have six. They face off today in a highly anticipated matchup. 

The Lakers were the preseason favorite to win the championship. They could be found between +225 and +300 back before Christmas. Currently they are sitting at +350, and this is where the value will come in for those investing in NBA futures. I do not think books/bettors are pricing the Lakers true chances right now, which means they are way over bet. Therefore, if they are over bet, the rest of the teams in the West must be offering better value than they should be.

Boil this down to the simplest form here: If Portland wins, the Blazers slide ahead of the Lakers for the moment. Assuming it stays that way, the Lakers now have to win a short series with high variance before even making it into the main playoff field. They may be doing so with a banged up, or even non-existent LeBron James. Sure, they still have enough talent to compete and win a few games, but would you take the James-less Lakers at +350 to win a ship? I know I would not. 

Even if LeBron is back and 100% healthy, you are now adding an extra 2-3 games to the playoff run for the Lakers. On top of that, you would be looking at a first-round matchup after the play in against probably the No.2 seed. Currently, that would be the Phoenix Suns, who are ranked in the top 10 on both offense and defense this year with one of the highest point differentials per 100 possessions. This could end up being a 50-win team and certainly not an easy round one opponent.

If they pass through the play-in game and round one, they likely see the Denver Nuggets in round two. The Nuggets are currently the three seed. Denver also has an elite level offense and a defense that is surprisingly good, knocking on the door of being top 10 in efficiency. If they manage to win that series, they would still have the No. 1 seeded Jazz or their cross town rival Los Angeles Clippers to contend with. The Lakers could be asked to win a short series play in before either beating the Nos. 2, 3 and 1 or 2, 3, and 4 seeded teams in the West just to get to the finals.

Once there, they would then have to beat the Eastern Conference winner, which is likely the Nets, unless they lose to the Bucks or 76ers. My guess is one of those three ends up representing the East. Now, I am not saying the Lakers cannot do this. With a healthy LeBron and AD, including pieces like Drummond, Schroder and the bench depth, they would have a good shot. With that said, you are relying on Anthony Davis and James to stay healthy; otherwise, they have a much reduced chance of making it through this gauntlet. Plus, they could end up losing to each and every one of those opponents.

This is where the value comes in, especially for teams in the West. If the Lakers stay healthy and go on another epic run, no one would be surprised. With that said, +300ish for a team that could have to beat the literal best teams the league has to offer in five straight series is a huge ask. The LA Clippers are +500, the Jazz are +700, the Suns are +1400 and the Nuggets are +3500. The team that was knocking on the door of the NBA finals in the West last year at +3500 is a gift. Even the Phoenix Suns at +1,400 feel like an amazing value. The Clippers at +500 is in range of where they floated in the offseason and preseason. Utah started the year at +3,600 and dropped all the way down to +700. At this point, the value is sucked out of a lot of the Jazz bets. If you did not get this at +1,500 or more, you should not be that excited about it.

The Clippers should be more of a favorite than they are. This is one of the most elite offenses in the NBA, and they do have multiple perimeter defenders they can throw at some of these offensive superstars they have to knock off along the way. +500 is probably a little too low for them too. I would rather invest in the Clips at +500 than the Jazz at +700.

With that being said, the better values are the Suns and Nuggets. If you are skeptical of the Lakers, bet those two teams. One of them is likely to come out of that side of the bracket if it is not the Lakers and at those odds, I’d be happy holding either of them on a ticket in a finals matchup.