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Gambling: Picking the Nuggets to not cover spread vs. Portland in season finale

We have reached the final day of the NBA’s regular season, and Sunday provides us with 10 games to target for either daily fantasy sports or betting purposes.

Let’s start with a game between the Houston Rockets and Atlanta Hawks. I really like taking a strong look at both Clint Capela’s points and rebounding props, as this matchup is ideal for him. Houston is allowing the eighth-most points per game off putbacks this season (6.6), while Capela leads the entire NBA in putback points per game (4.2). Getting putbacks would kill two birds with one stone, as he’d register two points and a rebound. The Rockets are also allowing the seventh-most rebounds per game to opposing centers on the year (15.8), making this a very advantageous spot for Capela.

Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Bucks will play on the second leg of a back-to-back against the Chicago Bulls on Sunday. They are basically locked into the third seed in the Eastern Conference, making it entirely possible that Milwaukee rests its key players against Chicago. If that happens, taking the under ahead of time would obviously make a lot of sense, as the Bucks wouldn’t play as fast without Giannis Antetokounmpo, who leads the NBA in transition points per game (8.3), and their overall offense would also be much less efficient.

Finally, the Portland Trail Blazers can finish anywhere from the fifth to seventh seed in the Western Conference, depending on what happens Sunday. That means that we should continue to see massive minutes from players like Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, and I like them to cover the spread in this game against the Denver Nuggets, who are only covering the spread 47.9% of the time on the year, which puts them slightly below average.

The Nuggets still have plenty to play for, as they are fighting with the Los Angeles Clippers for the three seed out West. With Los Angeles facing the Oklahoma City Thunder, it is more than likely that Denver will need to win this game to hold onto its spot. However, Portland is playing well right now, winning 10 of its last 11 games.

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