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Betting: Two picks for Wednesday’s full slate of MLB games

Wednesday continues the theme of massive slates around the MLB this week, as there are 13 total games, spanning from 12:35 PM ET all the way until 10:00 PM ET, giving us almost a full 12 hours of betting to tackle.

The difference in baseball compared to other sports is how the spreads (run lines) are measured. Unlike in other sports where the size of a spread can vary, baseball’s spreads are defaulted to 1.5 runs, with the odds being juiced one way or another. This makes targeting games before all the odds are up a bit easier, especially for the sake of these articles.

Below are my favorite two bets for Wednesday, June 23.

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Angels

The pick: under 8.0 total runs (-105, William Hill)

This run total surprised me a bit, as I was expecting to see it sit around an implied total of seven, so getting it at eight runs feels like a gift. While Shohei Ohtani has rightfully drawn praise for his play on both sides of the ball this season, Kevin Gausman has quietly put together a dominant season on the mound for the Giants. He’s posting career-best numbers in ERA (1.51) WHIP (0.77) and walk rate (5.6%) while holding a strikeout rate over 30% for the second consecutive season. Ohtani, as mentioned, is also having a stellar season, posting an ERA of 2.70 with a 32.9% strikeout rate. Given how effective these two have been at preventing runs, the under feels like a safe bet here considering that neither offense is one you’re ever going to run away from as a pitcher.

Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks

The pick: Brewers ML (-141, William Hill)

This simply feels like too much value with the Brewers throwing their ace on the mound against an offense that ranks in the bottom half of the league in runs per game (4.24, 18th) while also ranking within the bottom half in strikeouts per game (9.07) and striking out an astounding 11 times per game over their last three. This caters right into the wheelhouse of Brandon Woodruff, whose sub-2.00 ERA is backed by a 30.7% strikeout rate and only a 5.7% walk rate. This should help keep the Diamondbacks’ offense in check, and while the command has been a plus for Woodruff, it’s been a struggle for Caleb Smith on the other side of the mound. He’s posted a walk rate of over 10% in four of his five seasons as a pro and while his opponent batting average of 0.209 shows effectiveness, this current Brewers’ roster is sporting a 0.405 wOBA against Smith, making the money line a safe play.

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