Gambling: Zubac’s injury has impact on a couple of bets, but not on Ayton
The Los Angeles Clippers kept their season alive Monday with a huge win and will look to extend their season again Wednesday against the Phoenix Suns. There have been a lot of moving parts during this series so let’s take a look at what stands out from a betting perspective ahead of Wednesday’s Game 6.
For starters, the Clippers were without Ivica Zubac in Game 5. The center is dealing with a sprained MCL. In his absence, Los Angeles went back to a small lineup, starting Marcus Morris at the center position. DeMarcus Cousins, meanwhile, was productive in his playing time (15-2-3) but only played 11 minutes.
We saw Paul George continue to carry the load on offense, but he also benefited from Zubac’s absence, hauling in 13 rebounds while seeing a whopping 24 rebounding chances. And over his last three games, George is averaging a healthy 22.3 chances per game while converting 66% of those opportunities. If Zubac is out again, it is tough to not take the over on his rebounding prop of 10.5 boards, especially since he’s eclipsed that mark each of his last three games.
I also like the over on points for Marcus Morris (13.5) if Zubac is out. His minutes had been down over the course of the series due to the combination of Zubac playing 30-plus minutes and Morris himself dealing with a knee issue. But with Zubac out the other night, Morris went back up to 39 minutes, scoring 22 points on 16 field-goal attempts. Morris is sporting a usage rate near 23% with both Kawhi Leonard and Serge Ibaka off the floor over the course of the season.
Finally, I also want to take the over on Deandre Ayton’s points, which opens at 16.5. He only scored 10 points last game, but his nine field-goal attempts were a series low. He presents such a mismatch for this Phoenix team, regardless of whether Zubac plays or not. During this series, Ayton is averaging 13.2 paint touches per game while also averaging exactly one point per paint touch. The efficiency has been great, and the Suns should continue to play through him in the interior, especially if the Clippers have to play small in Game 6.




