Gambling: Nick Chubb, Lamar Jackson should reach bet marks
Don’t look now, but NFL training camps start at the end of the month, which means it is the perfect time to start betting on futures before things drastically change during camp and the preseason. There are plenty of very intriguing lines to look at ahead of the 2021 campaign, but here are a few that stand out to me.
Nick Chubb OVER 1,300.5 rushing yards (-112, DraftKings Sportsbook)
You can make the argument that there isn’t a better pure runner in the NFL than Chubb, who has averaged at least 5.0 yards per carry in all three of his professional seasons. And sure, yards per carry isn’t the greatest metric, but it’s true even when we break it down some more.
Throughout his first three seasons, Chubb has ranked first (4.06), second (3.77) and first (4.47) in yards after contact per attempt. He breaks and avoids tackles as well as any player in football. And while that is great, Chubb also doesn’t always have to break tackles, especially behind this Cleveland Browns offensive line. Cleveland added Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin last offseason, while Wyatt Teller emerged as an elite run-blocking guard. As a result, per Football Outsiders, the Browns ranked sixth in the league in adjusted line yards (4.79), while their 1.45 second-level yards were among the best in football.
Chubb averaged 2.9 yards before contact per rush, which was the sixth-most among all qualified running backs. We saw Chubb rush for nearly 1,500 yards in 2019, and while he likely won’t reach the 298 carries he saw that season, he’s been as efficient as anyone in football, meaning 250-260 carries are more than enough for him to reach this mark.
Lamar Jackson OVER 3,200.5 passing yards (-125, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Baltimore Ravens are going to finish inside the top five in rushing rate. That’s not really debatable. However, we could see a slight uptick in passing volume this year, as the moves the Ravens made in the offseason suggest that. They drafted Rashod Bateman in the first round and added Sammy Watkins in free agency. Offensive coordinator Greg Roman has talked about how this team is looking to add more to its passing game, and I think we see it.
Jackson threw for only 2,757 yards last year, but that was on just 376 pass attempts, while the former MVP also missed a game due to COVID-19. Between what Bateman will do for this passing attack and there being an extra game this season, I think Jackson goes just over this mark, especially if the passing volume increases for this entire offense.




