All eyes will be on Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier in the highly anticipated trilogy fight Saturday at UFC 264 in Las Vegas. Poirier turned down a title shot for this fight, and Dana White has already confirmed that the winner of this bout will face Charles Oliveira for the lightweight title.

These two first fought back in 2014 at UFC 178, which resulted in a first-round knockout by McGregor. It took McGregor less than two minutes to finish Poirier during that fight, but he did not fare as well in the rematch at UFC 257 in January. Both fighters were much improved during that 6.5-year span, but it was Poirier who won by knockout that time around.

In terms of this matchup, it is clear to me that McGregor likely needs to win by knockout inside the first two rounds. It is not that he cannot win a decision, but it is much less likely than him winning early due to his cardio issues among other things. Poirier was able to have success beating up the legs of McGregor, which has always been an issue for Conor when he is unable to finish fights early. McGregor clearly won the first round, but it was obvious that the tide was turning in Poirier’s favor as he was timing his counter punches better in addition to the leg kicks toward the end of the round.

Poirier is the more likely of the two to land takedowns and should be favored the longer the fight goes as he has better cardio and McGregor’s biggest shots will come early. The best way to target this fight is by betting McGregor to win by knockout in Round 1 or waiting until Round 2 to live bet Dustin Poirier. Of McGregor’s 22 career wins, 19 of them have come by knockout and 14 inside the first round. The best part is you can get nearly double the odds for this prop than when they fought in January. McGregor needs to win early, and I think he will, but if you disagree, you can get a better number on Poirier after he loses Round 1 if he stays conscious.