Colorado’s drought situation vastly improved this month compared to over a year ago, but experts worry about wildfire potential if the state doesn’t get good snow and rain in the spring, according to presentations at Thursday’s state Water Availability Task Force meeting. 

Last year’s poor precipitation has had a dramatic effect on reservoir storage across parts of Colorado, and that raises concerns for anyone who relies on those reservoirs for water supplies.

Statewide temperatures between October 1 and January 31 were the 2nd warmest on record behind 2018, State Climatologist Russ Schumacher of the Colorado Climate Center at Colorado State University said. 

Snowstorms have been “a welcome change from the dry fall,” with parts of the Front Range getting two to three times the normal precipitation during January, Schumacher said.

Where the snowfall hasn’t been as good is southwestern Colorado, which Schumacher said has gotten less than half of its average precipitation in the current water year, which started October 1; and, the San Luis Valley, which is just above half of its average precipitation.

“We don’t like to see it so warm and dry this time of year,” Schumacher said.

The mountains haven’t fared well either, particularly the high elevation sites measured by the Climate Center and which the state relies on for much of its snowpack. Those areas should be getting one to two inches of snow every week and are averaging just 0.1 of an inch, he said.

The state’s snowpack has been on something of a rollercoaster, Schumacher added.

The state’s drought situation is better than it was a year ago, although the San Luis Valley and a small portion of northwestern Colorado are still in severe drought.

All of those factors contribute to the outlook for wildfires. Schumacher noted the potential is highest for the Eastern Plains and in particular, southeastern Colorado.

“That’s the concern if we don’t get good snow and rain into the spring,” Schumacher said.

The recent snows along the Front Range have been very welcome, but after the big storms at the end of December and into early January, there’s been very little snow in the mountains. That means pessimism about a good snowpack runoff in the spring, he explained.

The effects of last year’s poor precipitation and drought mean the state’s largest reservoir, Blue Mesa in Gunnison County, is at its lowest level since it was first filled in the 1960s, according to Karl Wetlaufer of the USDA’s Natural Resources Conservation Service.

Blue Mesa was one of three reservoirs, along with Navajo in southwestern Colorado and Flaming Gorge in Utah, that were tapped last year to keep Lake Powell’s power generation running, he explained. This is “a major consideration for Western Slope water supply,” as well as a concern for water storage for the Upper Colorado headwaters, and it will take significant snow and rainfall to raise those water levels, he said.

The task force, which meets monthly, includes municipal water providers and staff from the Colorado Water Conservation Board, Colorado Climate Center and the Natural Resources Conservation Service from the US Department of Agriculture.