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Paul Klee: What Colorado Avalanche must overcome to win Stanley Cup

DENVER — If the nerves and anxiety of another Avalanche playoff run are getting to you, look at it this way.

Four years ago the Avs were picked to finish dead last in the NHL. Last! See, sweaty palms and sleepless nights still beat the alternative.

Now the pressure’s on — big time. The Avs’ postseason starts Tuesday, and there has never, ever been more pressure on an Avs’ postseason. There was not this much pressure on the Glory Days Avs, because the Glory Days Avs won a Stanley Cup in their first go-round here. The next decade was carefree awesomeness. Anyone who’s birdied the first hole knows that’s true. If you know anyone who’s birdied the first hole.

But these Avs carry two mental burdens into a series against the Nashville Predators with Game 1 Tuesday at Ball Arena: the pressure that comes with being a heavy favorite… and a few years of playoff flameouts. Shoot, it’s not me saying that. Nathan MacKinnon, the best player on the best team, said as much after one of those flameouts: “I’m going into my ninth year next year and haven’t won (expletive).”

Appreciate the honesty, and it was also a window into the pressure the Avs carry around.

The Avalanche spent the past six months as the NHL’s resident bully. Have you ever seen anything like it? Nobody here has. As good as it was during the Avs’ first decade — and as bad as it was for the next decade — this hockey state has never witnessed a regular season like this one. Nope. This one was one of a kind.

There was that two-week stretch in November when the Avs looked like nothing short of a labor strike could stop them. Six games, 36 goals, five opponents left wondering if a hurricane had blown through. Or that Monday-Wednesday-Friday when the Avs went to New York for seven goals, Philly for seven goals and came home for seven goals against Detroit. Or, you know that entire month of January when the Avalanche didn’t lose a game in regulation.

Fifty-six wins set a franchise record. Never seen anything like it.

Depending on the shade of your Avs glasses, that’s either a playoff preview or ramping up the playoff pressure. I’m going with the latter. The Avs didn’t birdie the first hole. They bailed in the second round each of the past three years. They haven’t reached a conference final in 20 years. There’s going to be a 2-1 series deficit, or an untimely suspension, or a hot goalie, and they’re going to feel the pressure again.

How will they handle it?

I looked it up, and it’s been 20 years since the eventual Stanley Cup champion had better odds to win it all than the Avs. Put another way, the Avs (plus-350) are the biggest playoff favorite since the Wings in 2002. And if the Red Wings were good, you know that was a long time ago.

Oh, there’s no doubt in my mind the Avs’ best is better than the field’s best. I mean, look at their January for crying out loud, or what smart hockey people have admitted along the way.

“If you are a wild card team I sure as hell don’t want to play Colorado in the first round,” Flames coach Darryl Sutter said. “It’s going to be a waste of eight days.”

But this group has yet to show its best in the playoffs.

Hockey doesn’t play favorites. I looked this up, too, since doing your own research often proves valuable in the long run: only two preseason favorites in the past 15 years went on to win the Stanley Cup. That was the Blackhawks in 2015 and the Lightning in 2020. Thirteen other teams in the Avs’ current situation failed to realize expectations. Hockey flat-out hates favorites. The NBA’s seen two favorites win the title in the last five years, MLB one in the past five years, the NFL one in the past five years. What’s supposed to happen in hockey rarely happens in hockey.

Don’t place too much stock in the Avalanche’s icky finish to the regular season. Losing six of seven doesn’t mean all that much when at different times you’re resting or missing MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, Darcy Kuemper, Devon Toews and Cale Makar. Coasting down the stretch won’t cost the Avs a parade.

But the pressure might. Playoff pressure is one opponent the Avs haven’t beaten yet. This postseason’s bound to be a referendum on the core figures — MacKinnon, Landeskog, Mikko Rantanen and his $55 million contract, even coach Jared Bednar. They’re too good to fail.

Pressure’s on, but it sure beats the alternative.



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