Mark Twain once wrote, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

Many may believe Mark Twain was right after seeing a recent report by the FBI on crime statistics for 2023. In that report the FBI noted that 2023 saw one of the largest drops in crime in history. Crime data for Denver in the past year appeared to parallel this trend with property and violent crimes dropping from 2022.

Those figures present a picture that public safety significantly improved in the past year, yet few in the general public share that sense as a recent Gallup poll found that 77% of the public believe that crime is up.

The fact is that the public takes a longer view of safety than one year and merely comparing 2023 to 2022 doesn’t tell the full story. For example, while auto theft in Colorado was down by almost 20% over that period, auto theft overall in the state has risen by 62% over the past five years. Also, while there was a slight drop in homicides in Denver in 2023 from the prior year, the increase in homicides since 2019 has been 30% — and for those families of the 82 victims in Denver who died in 2023, the slight “drop” in homicides, is meaningless.

Similarly on a national level, the FBI statistics reflected that carjacking across the country dropped by 9% in 2023, but that number pales when one considers that carjacking has risen by 93% since 2019.

Adding to the public’s distrust of these glowing national public safety statistics are the almost daily news stories and film clips that appear to portray conditions that contradict that data. Images on the national news showing the National Guard being deployed to the subways in New York City because of security concerns or downtown stores in San Francisco being ransacked by gangs of people, do little to give an impression of improved public safety.

Further, while many crimes in the FBI’s report reflected a drop, other areas such as retail theft and shoplifting appear to be on the increase. The National Retail Federation reported in the past year that retailers are seeing “unprecedented levels of theft coupled with rampant crime in their stores.” Realizing that stores only catch 2% of shoplifters, one can understand the frustration with crime of many businesses who are still trying to recover from the downturn due to the pandemic. In the case of our own state, Denver now ranks as 11th highest in the nation for retail theft. Retailers in Colorado lost $1.3 billion in revenue to theft while return fraud cost those businesses an estimated $1.4 billion in sales revenue for an overall loss of an estimated $2.7 billion in 2022. In the case of retail theft and fraud, it isn’t only the stores and businesses who lose out but the overall public. According to the National Retail Federation the State of Colorado lost out on $78 million in sales tax due to theft and retail fraud. Tax dollars that could have helped to support critical programs in our state.

Unfortunately, the public has begun to realize that crime statistics also do not portray the full picture. It isn’t that the FBI or state official are fudging the numbers on crime, the problem is the data. A large number of property crimes now go unreported because victims realize that the police are short of staff and may not even respond in cases that they view as a minor crime so why waste the time of reporting it. Further, unless the loss is significant many people may not report it for fear that they may be dropped by their insurance or see a significant bump in premium.

Sadly, the people most impacted by increased crime are the people who can least afford it. A majority of the unreported property crime victims are thought to be poor people. They may not report these crimes out of fear of retaliation by those criminals who committed the offense or a mistrust of the police or a view that the police can do little to help. The fact that a high percentage of the victims of these crimes are the poor should alarm all of us and give us further cause to curb crime in Colorado.

In the case of the general public, crime data and statistics mean little to them, nor do promises and speeches do much to restore their faith in the safety of their communities. In this case, actions speak louder than words. We don’t measure our safety by statistics but rather our sense of comfort in our homes, downtown areas, businesses, and public areas. A greater police presence in downtown Denver and our neighborhoods along with a quicker response time will do more to instill confidence and faith in our communities than a press release or any statistical report.

Further, one doesn’t need to look at statistics to see whether the public feels safe. They can readily see it with an increase in people traveling to downtown Denver nightly and on weekends for dinner or entertainment. They can measure it by more riders on RTDs buses throughout the day. They can further gauge it by how many residents are walking their neighborhood streets in the evening, how many children and parents are on our playgrounds, or how many people feel comfortable visiting our city’s wonderful parks.

Greg Fulton, a 40-year Denver resident, is the president of the Colorado Motor Carriers Association, which represents over 600 companies directly involved in, and affiliated with trucking in Colorado.