Denver Mayor Mike Johnston called his response to the city’s homelessness crisis successful, even after data from an annual tally released Wednesday showed the homeless population grew.

The city is on track to spend nearly $155 million on the mayor’s homelessness campaign — $65 million more than anticipated — even as the total number of homeless people in the city actually ballooned from 5,818 last year to 6,539 this year. 

And the city saw only 150 fewer “unsheltered” homeless people when compared to last year’s count.

The 12% growth in the total number of homeless people from year to year and the relatively small reduction in the “unsheltered” population puzzled at least one councilmember.      

By the time the annual point in time in count was conducted in January, the mayor had been touting how his administration transitioned more than a thousand people out of the city’s streets into shelters. 

District 10 Councilmember Chris Hinds questioned the effectiveness of Denver’s strategy, based on the newest count numbers.

“I’m working with the administration to reconcile the mayor’s administration’s success in getting 1,600 people off the streets and into shelter since the mayor was inaugurated with the reduction in the point in time count of 200,” he said in an email to The Denver Gazette, referring to the “unsheltered” population.

“Unsheltered” is a category in the annual count that refers to homeless people who live and sleep in public places, such as streets, parks and under bridges.  

“Where did the other 1,400 people go?” Hinds asked. “Or did we get 1,200 more people living on our streets that weren’t in Denver a year ago?”

There are at least two potential answers to that question. First, more people became homeless and ended up in the city’s streets. Second, the city, given the array of services and its “housing first” approach, attracted homeless people from other parts of the state — or from elsewhere in the country and ended up in the annual count.

Jordan Fuja, a spokesperson for Johnston, said the answer is the former.

She said more people in Denver continue to fall into homelessness due to the high cost of living and evictions. She said the increase in housing costs and the stagnation of wages are a major cause for the spike in evictions.

The city has allocated significant resources into helping residents with rent, allocating $29 million for rental assistance this year.    

Fuja also took the opportunity to push a proposed 0.5-point sales tax increase that the city said will generate $100 million and fund affordable housing.

“Without the resources to grow our affordable housing stock at scale, we’re still facing a large gap and folks who can’t afford their rent are ending up on the streets,” the mayor’s spokesperson said. “That’s why we’re so focused on increasing our stock of affordable housing, supporting households that are on the brink of losing their homes, while simultaneously helping people access safe, stable transitional housing through All In Mile High.” 

The annual point in time count provides a snapshot of homelessness in a major city in a single night, offering a glimpse into the problem that Johnston promised to solve by the end of his first term. Denver’s count was conducted in the midst of winter, so the exact numbers of homeless people citywide may be higher or lower.

Some advocates have long insisted that the annual survey yields an undercount.

In a news release, the Johnston administration avoided citing the overall picture of homelessness still growing in the city, despite the significant resources allocated to curbing it. Instead, he pointed to the 83% reduction in “unsheltered” family homelessness and the 23% decrease in tent and vehicle-based homelessness.

The latest data showed that the overall number of people who were “unsheltered” on Denver’s streets went down marginally.

Last year, there were 1,423 people living unsheltered on Denver streets. This year, that number stood at 1,273, a reduction of only 150 people or 11%, according to the report.

The annual count, conducted by the Metro Denver Homeless Initiative, occurred from sundown Jan. 22 to sundown Jan. 23.

A Colorado Coalition for the Homeless official agreed the high cost of housing is driving the increased number of homeless people. 

“Once you are evicted, it’s really hard to be able to find a new home. A lot of people are becoming chronically homelessness because it’s taking longer and longer to find affordable housing options,” said Cathy Alderman, chief communications and public policy officer for coalition.

‘Spend first, ask questions later mindset’ 

The mayor’s sales tax hike pitch drew the ire of Councilmember Stacie Gilmore, who represents neighborhoods like Montbello in Council District 11. She criticized the mayor for using the data from the point in time count to push for the sales tax increase, which she opposes.

The proposal, if ultimately approved at the ballot box along with another sales tax increase meant to fund Denver Health, would catapult Denver to the top of the bracket in the metropolis and Northern Colorado.   

“To use these figures to further campaign for an incomplete potential tax increase ballot initiative that lacks thorough public input from constituents tells you everything you need to know about the spend first, ask questions later mindset of this administration,” Gilmore said in a statement to The Denver Gazette. “I would encourage the public to be skeptical of anyone rushing to celebrate the fact that 1,273 people experiencing unsheltered homelessness and a continued increase in homelessness as a success.”

She added there is “inconclusive evidence” that any one person or agency is responsible for the decrease in unsheltered homelessness citywide.

Gilmore also criticized the mayor for moving homeless encampments out of the city center and into suburban areas, such as hers district, which she said is “further concentrating poverty.”

While Gilmore thinks any money spent on helping people experiencing homelessness is “worth the investment,” she said people need to remember the context of Johnston’s spending.

“(It was) a blank check ask made in a rush, months after the mayor was elected, with minimal public input and a myopic understanding of how those rushed efforts would affect different parts of Denver in the long-term,” she said. “Yes, there has been a decrease in the rate of unsheltered homelessness. We should celebrate that.”

“But it’s worth considering where those people are ending up in our city and non-profit homelessness networks and the true success rate of those efforts,” she added. 

She said the real question is whether Denver’s ongoing efforts are creating a lasting impact on people and families moving through the shelter system, or if the city is doing it just “to make downtown look cleaner.” 

Johnston’s campaign, according to city data, have moved 1,673 people off the streets and into shelters so far. Of that number, 188 ended up back in the city’s streets.

Additionally, 12 have died, 34 are in jail and the city does not know the status of 53 others, according to the city’s dashboard.

Notably, the point in time count excluded immigrants who crossed America’s southern border illegally and traveled to Denver. Almost 43,000 people have arrived in the past two years and roughly half remained, with only 12 currently in short term shelter. The authors of the count noted that immigrant “population that stayed at the temporary migrant-only shelters are not included in the the Metro Denver PIT report.”

Several councilmembers defended the city’s campaign to curb homelessness.

Councilmember Darrell Watson, who represents District 9, said any decrease of people living on the streets is “an opportunity to celebrate.”

“There’s a year-over-year decrease in the instance of unhoused residents and that’s the first time I can say that has happened in a very long time,” Watson said. “In District 9, we had over 600 people living on our streets between Ballpark and Five Points in encampments. Now, they are in shelter, not subjected to folks selling drugs to them or having prostitution forced upon them.”

Watson also advised caution when looking at the point in time count, as it just a “snapshot” of a single day in January. Homelessness counts can and fluctuate as a result, especially depending on weather, and the survey should not be used as a building block for policy, he said. 

“But when you think of the family unhoused crisis that we had and see that reduction, no matter what that percentage is, it’s a tremendous success,” Watson said.

The city’s budget this year for housing and tackling homelessness is roughly $240 million.   

Johnston insisted his strategy is working.

“We have always believed that homelessness is a solvable problem, and now we have the data to prove it,” Johnston said. “In just six months, we were able to achieve transformational reduction in unsheltered homelessness while building an infrastructure that will allow us to attack this issue for years to come.”