While UCF and TCU officially kicked off Big 12 play last week, things get real Saturday with another 12 teams starting conference play and six conference games on the slate.

Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark called his shot when he said the league would be the deepest and most entertaining on a week-to-week basis. He’s been right. Though three weeks all but three teams have a winning record, and there hasn’t been much separation from the top of the conference to the bottom.

With the majority of teams beginning their conference slate this weekend, let’s break down the 16 teams into four groups: contenders, could-be contenders, pretenders and not contenders.

Contenders

Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Utah

It’s no surprise the top three teams from the preseason poll look like the Big 12’s three best teams through three weeks.

Kansas State had preseason believers thanks to promising quarterback Avery Johnson. Both Johnson and the Wildcats have proven those believers correct. If Johnson continues to develop into a star and the K-State defense continues to play lights-out football, the Wildcats would become the favorites to win the conference’s automatic bid to the College Football Playoff.

Oklahoma State and Utah have looked as expected with veteran rosters led by two of the longest-tenured coaches in the country.

The Cowboys needed double overtime to beat Arkansas in Week 2, but any win over an SEC team is a good win. They bounced back by beating in-state rival Tulsa by five touchdowns.

The Utes are once again dealing with injuries as quarterback Cam Rising’s status is up in the air Saturday, but they have a strong defense that’s led the way for three convincing wins.

But there will be some separation between these two teams over the next two weeks. Oklahoma State and Utah meet Saturday in Salt Lake City, while the Cowboys and Wildcats meet next week in Manhattan, Kan.

Could-be contenders

Arizona, Arizona State, Central Florida, Colorado, Iowa State, Texas Tech

This was always going to be the most crowded group early in the season. Most Power 4 teams play, at most, one quality opponent before conference play starts leading to plenty of teams with good September records.

But all of these teams have shown flashes that suggest they could remain in the race to win the Big 12. The Buffs have arguably the two best players in Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders. Arizona State is off to its best start in a few years. UCF is currently the only team with a conference win. Iowa State has the most impressive win, beating Iowa at Kinnick Stadium. Arizona and Texas Tech have explosive offenses, but not a whole lot of defense.

This group will also see plenty of separation over the next few weeks as these teams begin to play one another.

Pretenders

Baylor, BYU, Cincinnati, TCU, West Virginia

Despite being picked to finish near the bottom of the conference, all three of these teams have winning records to this point.

BYU is undefeated, but hosts Kansas State in what could be a reality-check game.

Baylor goes on the road to Folsom Field and after beating up on Air Force, and the Bears will face an offense that couldn’t be any different in CU’s high-powered passing attack.

Cincinnati has a chance to continue momentum at home against Houston.

Meanwhile, TCU and West Virginia have plenty to prove. The Horned Frogs lost the first Big 12 game of the year at home to UCF and now have back-to-back road games, while the Mountaineers have yet to beat an FBS team, losing at home to a playoff contender in Penn State and on the road to rival Pittsburgh.

Not contenders

Houston, Kansas

It may be harsh to write off anyone this early, but it doesn’t feel likely that either the Cougars or Jayhawks enter the Big 12 title conversation — and for different reasons.

Houston is in its first season under coach Willie Fritz, and the situation in south Texas feels like a long-term rebuild as the Cougars still lack talent to compete in a bigger conference.

Kansas, on the other hand, has been thoroughly disappointing. The Jayhawks are 0-2 against FBS opponents, losing on the road at Illinois and at home against UNLV. Veteran quarterback Jalon Daniels doesn’t look like the same player from the past few seasons, and KU is feeling the loss of offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, who left in the offseason for Penn State.

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5 Games to Watch

No. 18 Michigan vs. No. 11 USC (1:30 p.m., CBS)

Everyone loves this classic Big Ten rivalry, right? In all seriousness, this is a massive game for each side. Michigan has changed quarterbacks, going with Alex Orji to start this week, and needs a statement win after a disappointing home loss to Texas. Meanwhile, USC is coming off an early-season bye and could cement itself as a playoff contender with a second ranked win away from L.A. in September.

King’s pick: USC +5

Texas Tech vs. Arizona State (1:30 p.m., FS1)

There are going to be a lot of sneaky good games in the Big 12 this season and this is the first. Arizona State is after its first 4-0 start since 2016 and the Sun Devils have looked good in coach Kenny Dillingham’s second season, while Texas Tech is looking to continue to bounce back after a bad loss to Washington State in Week 2. The Red Raiders put up 52 points in the first half last week but need another strong performance to keep the momentum going.

King’s pick: Texas Tech -3

No. 14 Oklahoma State vs. No. 12 Utah (2 p.m., FOX)

The line on this game has completely flipped with QB Cam Rising’s status in doubt for Utah, but this should still be an real showdown between two teams vying for a Big 12 title. Even if Rising doesn’t play, it’s hard to pick against the Utes. If Rising plays, it’ll be a battle between two of the most experienced QBs in the country with the Cowboys’ Alan Bowman off to a hot start.

King’s pick: Utah +2.5

No. 15 Oklahoma vs. No. 6 Tennessee (5:30 p.m., ABC)

This is the game of the week. It’s Oklahoma’s SEC debut. Tennessee coach Josh Heupel returns to the place where he won a national championship as a player. The head coach on the other sideline is someone he’s played for and coached with. Heupel’s Vols have been one of the hottest teams and a win in Norman would say a lot about Tennessee and its freshman QB, Nico Iamaleava.

King’s pick: Tennessee -6.5

BYU vs. No. 13 Kansas State (8:30 p.m., ESPN)

K-State quietly had one of the best wins of Week 3 with a convincing win over a fellow ranked Big 12 opponent in Arizona. QB Avery Johnson looks like the real deal and Colorado transfer RB Dylan Edwards is already making an impact on both offense and special teams. Plus, the Wildcats have an experienced, talented defense. They’ll be tested on Saturday night in Provo, though.

King’s pick: Kansas State -7

King’s YTD record ATS: 5-5 (1-4 last week)

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King’s Heisman Watchlist

1. Travis Hunter, CB/WR, Colorado

The first month is all about highlighting new players every week before the Heisman race settles in, but Hunter deserves another mention after yet another jaw-dropping performance at Colorado State. He’s the first Buffs wide receiver to record four straight games with 100 receiving yards or more and found his form on defense with his first interception of the season.

2. Jaxson Dart, QB, Ole Miss

Even though the Rebels’ nonconference schedule has been soft, Dart has done exactly what he’s supposed to as one of the top quarterbacks in the country. He leads the nation in passing and has also completed 83% of his attempts to go with eight touchdown passes. The senior couldn’t have asked for a better start to his last season in college.

3. Jalen Milroe, QB, Alabama

Milroe and the Crimson Tide are the owners of the biggest statement win of Week 3 as they went into Camp Randall Stadium and took it to a solid Wisconsin team. Milroe had his best game of the young season, accounting for five touchdowns in ‘Bama’s 32-point win. Milroe has yet to take the step forward as a passer, but he remains arguably the most dynamic rushing threat in the country from the QB position.

4. Avery Johnson, QB, Kansas State

At 19 years old, Johnson is already one of the most dynamic players in all of college football. In a statement win for K-State, Johnson threw for 156 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for over 100. He’s the biggest reason the Wildcats look like one of the top teams in the Big 12.

5. Arch Manning, QB, Texas

Is this premature? Yeah, probably. Will he even be the starter when Quinn Ewers is back? Probably not. But Manning is the real deal. He proved himself worthy of his last name that is football royalty, by coming in and playing about as well as he could’ve in Texas’ win over UTSA last week. Manning had more touchdowns (4) than incompletions (3) and even showed off his legs with a 67-yard touchdown. He’ll make his first college start this weekend.