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Goaltending decline in NHL can be traced to these reasons | NHL Insider

It's important to remember the only team that can offer Mikko Rantanen an eight-year deal is the Avalanche.

The Colorado Avalanche aren’t the only team in the NHL desperate to get a save from their goaltenders.

It’s a league-wide problem, and it doesn’t appear to be getting better.

Last season, NHL goaltenders averaged a .903 save percentage, the lowest average save percentage the league had seen since the 2005-06 season. Save percentages have been in a steady decline since the 2015-16 season, where everything peaked at a high of .915. This year, it hasn’t gotten any better.

Although there’s still plenty of season left to be played, NHL goaltenders had a combined save percentage of .901 heading into Thanksgiving. Colorado’s goaltenders haven’t done much to help those numbers out.

Although Alexandar Georgiev bounced back in November with a significantly better month than he produced in October, Justus Annunen’s game got away from him. The 24-year old netminder stopped only 76 of the 92 shots he faced in November, which is a big reason why the Avalanche traded him Saturday for veteran Scott Wedgewood. The inconsistency in net is why Colorado sits dead-last in the NHL with a .871 team save percentage. The next closest team is the Columbus Blue Jackets at .881.

That’s a significant gap.

So, what gives? What exactly is happening with the goaltending around the league? It’s apparently a topic of conversation among coaches in the league.

“We were talking about that the other day,” Avalanche coach Jared Bednar said.

Goalies around the league might not like that coaches are discussing how bad it’s gotten, but Bednar provided his theory on cliff-diving save percentages.

“It’s harder and harder to defend in this league with the rule changes that have been going on,” he said. “Players (have the) ability to skate, hang on to the puck, and force you to defend longer and drive pucks into the interior of the ice. There’s a lot of gifted shooters, a lot of gifted, talented guys that can distribute the puck.”

Sure, there seem to be more talented skaters than ever in the NHL, as skill has become an even bigger focus for players coming into the league. On the flip side, teams seem to have moved away from the idea of spending premium assets on goaltenders to develop them.

There have been no goalies selected in the first round in each of the last three NHL drafts. Going all the way back to the 2015 NHL Draft, there have only been six goalies taken in the first round. It could be a talent issue. It could be a development issue, as even some of those first round picks haven’t exactly panned out. It could also just be an issue of fewer young people desiring to play goalie.

Anyone who has played hockey or had a child who plays hockey knows that it’s not a cheap sport, and no position is more expensive than goaltender. And for a position with a high entry cost, there’s no guarantee of playing time. After all, only one goalie can play in a game. There’s only so much playing time to go around, so a lot of young players choose different positions.

There might not be one specific reason why goaltending has taken a backseat in the NHL, but one thing is for sure: there are fewer elite goaltenders in the league than ever before.

“The guys that used to play 60-70 games a year on a regular basis were all the top guys, and obviously really elite at what they do,” Bednar said.

“There’s just not as many of those guys as before.”

You can count on one hand the amount of elite goalies in the league. Connor Hellebuyck, Igor Shesterkin, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Juuse Saros, and Ilya Sorokin are the big names that come to mind. After that, the rest of the goalies in the league don’t show much consistency on a year-to-year basis. Even Sergei Bobrovsky, who helped Florida win the Stanley Cup last year, has seen his numbers fluctuate the past six seasons.

This has led to more and more teams using a two-goaltender system. It’s also led to teams not spending as much on their goalies, focusing on building a a solid team in front of them. The Avalanche are one example, but they’re not the only one. The 2023 Golden Knights used five goalies on their way to winning a Stanley Cup with Adin Hill, who had never been a starter before. Hill, who has since signed a big contract, has just an .894 save percentage this season, proving once again that you just never know with goalies.

While the Avalanche continue to search for that No. 1 goaltender they can lean on for multiple seasons, they aren’t the only one. Goaltending continues to decline in the NHL, and no one can seem to pinpoint an exact reason why.


What I’m hearing

—Unfortunate timing for Oliver Kylington to suffer an injury, as he finally seemed to be hitting his stride in an Avalanche uniform. After sitting for most of the season, he said that most of the preparation when it comes to being ready to play comes off the ice.

“Just really being there mentally,” he said. “Body is already prepared, so I think the mental aspect is, I would say, even more important than the physical.”

—With the injury to Drouin, Nikolai Kovalenko is getting another shot in the top six. His first game against Vegas was very strong, but he didn’t play as well against Dallas. Still, Bednar has been happy with his progress, stating he’s adjusting to the North American game.

“He’s a much more responsible checker and a better defender than he was early in the year,” Bednar said. “He’s getting himself above the puck quicker.”

What I’m seeing

—Casey Mittelstadt had a tremendous start to the season, but November has not been kind to him. His passing looks off and he hasn’t done much to create anything at even strength.

His last 5-on-5 point came Oct. 28 in the first period against the Chicago Blackhawks. Colorado needs a bit more from him.

—Injuries are hitting again. Miles Wood’s injury sounds significant, as Bednar told Altitude Radio he is considered to be month-to-month. Josh Manson missed Saturday’s game against the Oilers and was still being evaluated for a timeline.

Colorado’s depth on defense will now be tested without Kylington and Manson. John Ludvig hasn’t played much but will be needed now.

What I’m thinking

—Pierre Lebrun of The Athletic recently said that he believes Mikko Rantanen’s camp thinks he can get $14 million a year on the open market. That might be the case, but it’s important to remember the only team that can offer Rantanen an eight-year deal is the Avalanche.

Seven years at $14 million per season comes out to $98 million. That extra year the Avalanche can offer could make the difference when it comes to getting a deal done. A $98 million deal over eight years would come out to $12.25 million per season for the Avalanche.

—Maybe it’s a good thing the Avalanche didn’t have the cap space to lock up Jonathan Drouin on a long-term deal over the summer. One thing that was on Drouin’s side last season was health. That hasn’t been the case most of his career. It was the first time since 2018-19 that he played more than 58 games.

With another “week-to-week” injury, it’s unlikely he hits 58 games this season. That might lower his price next summer when his contract is up again.

Vegas Golden Knights right wing Sheldon Rempal, left, has his shot blocked by Colorado Avalanche goalie Justus Annunen, center, as Avalanche center Jason Polin, right, clears the puck in the third period of a preseason NHL hockey game on Sept. 25, 2023, in Denver. (the associated press)
Vegas Golden Knights right wing Sheldon Rempal, left, has his shot blocked by Colorado Avalanche goalie Justus Annunen, center, as Avalanche center Jason Polin, right, clears the puck in the third period of a preseason NHL hockey game on Sept. 25, 2023, in Denver. (the associated press)
Colorado Avalanche left wing Jonathan Drouin (27) in the second period of an NHL hockey game Thursday, April 18, 2024, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski) (David Zalubowski)
Colorado Avalanche left wing Jonathan Drouin (27) in the second period of an NHL hockey game Thursday, April 18, 2024, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski) (David Zalubowski)
Colorado Avalanche right wing Mikko Rantanen (96) is introduced to the crowd before Game 4 of an NHL Stanley Cup second-round playoff series against the Dallas Stars Monday, May 13, 2024, at Ball Arena in Denver. (The Gazette, Christian Murdock) (Christian Murdock/The Gazette)
Colorado Avalanche right wing Mikko Rantanen (96) is introduced to the crowd before Game 4 of an NHL Stanley Cup second-round playoff series against the Dallas Stars Monday, May 13, 2024, at Ball Arena in Denver. (The Gazette, Christian Murdock) (Christian Murdock/The Gazette)
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