Inside the numbers: What might be leading to the Avalanche’s Casey Mittelstadt’s current slump
The NHL season is a grind, and every player goes through a slump or two over 82 games. Avalanche center Casey Mittelstadt is deep in one right now. He’ll eventually break out of it, but not a lot has been going well for him since October ended.
What might be leading to his dip in production and effectiveness? Let’s take a deeper look.
Keep it simple
No one will ever mistake Mittelstadt for Nathan MacKinnon, who shoots the puck more than anyone in the league. However, even if you’re a playmaker like the Minnesota native is, you must shoot the puck just a little bit to keep the defense honest. If you don’t, you become a little too easy to defend.
Over the last six games, Mittelstadt has been held without a shot on goal in four games. He hasn’t attempted more than two shots in any of his last eight appearances. Those numbers consider all game situations, but at 5-on-5, the numbers are even more alarming.
Mittelstadt has not registered more than one shot on goal at 5-on-5 in any of the last 12 games. In four of the last five games, he hasn’t even attempted a shot during 5-on-5 play. If he wants to break out of this slump, shooting a bit more might be one way to do it.
“He’s got to have more of a shot mentality,” Avalanche coach Jared Bednar said of his second line center earlier this week. “If you look to pass and stop your feet all the time, the defending is too good in this league and they’re going to break up a lot of plays.”
Slowed down
Mittelstadt has never been the fastest skater in the world, but when The Denver Gazette asked Bednar to diagnose the center’s struggles, he knew exactly where to start.
“Skating. Got to skate,” he said. “He’s effective when he’s skating and turning his legs…it starts with him moving his legs and challenging defenders with his legs.”
As someone who likes to pass more than shoot, Mittelstadt is a big fan of pulling up and looking to pass when he enters the zone. Continuing to carry the puck a little bit more as opposed to deferring will make it a little more difficult for opposing defensemen to predict what he’s going to do.
Defense leads to offense
All the injuries have led to Mittelstadt having a smorgasbord of linemates this season. Since Valeri Nichushkin re-entered the line, he’s been stapled to Mittelstadt’s wing, but that has still led to the center spending too much time in the defensive zone.
The 26-year-old center has the worst possession numbers among all the regular forwards on the team. He’s also been on the ice for a whopping 24 goals against at even strength, which is the most on the team. The sub-par goaltending this season certainly hasn’t helped his case, as Colorado’s goalies are stopping just 85% of the shots with him on the ice, but the Avalanche are probably spending more time in their end than they’d like when Mittelstadt’s line is out there.
His expected goals-for percentage is just 45%, which means he’s been on the ice for more expected goals against than for. That number is the lowest among the regular forward group. Bednar, like most coaches, believes good defense typically leads to offense, so there’s a lot of room for improvement here.
Mittelstadt is too talented to be held down for this long. Eventually the floodgates will open, but those are just a few things that might explain the current slump he’s in.





