Colorado housing experts say ‘bad forecasting’ led to less affordable housing

Peter LiFari and Aimee Cox

A panel of housing experts Tuesday argued the lack of affordable housing in Colorado is because of poor planning, resulting in fewer housing options, especially the need to accommodate people with lower incomes.

Experts also lamented impacts of government involvement in creating more affordable living options.

At the annual Common Sense Institute (CSI) summit Tuesday, the panel included CSI housing and homeless Fellow Peter LiFari and Aimee Cox, the new chief housing and homelessness response officer in Colorado Springs.

LiFari, the CSI housing data analyst, said Colorado’s housing crisis, whether it be lack of affordable housing or need for more housing options, is struggling because of a lack of housing developments compared to newly arriving residents.

“Quite simply, we became anemic to housing development over the last 30 years, although net migration has fallen off a cliff, which is extremely concerning,” LiFari said of Colorado’s approach to affordable housing. “We made some bad forecasting errors.”

“We thought that millennials might kind of bridge the mold and just want to rent forever, never have kids,” LiFari said. “That was obviously a poor decision.”

LiFari brought up Proposition 123, which, in 2022, was passed by voters to inject more money from government agencies into housing programs.

To be evaluated further in a future CSI study, LiFari said Prop. 123 generated $160 million in year one and will surpass $320 million in 2025, dollars that will “be carved up amongst the needs of the housing continuum.”

But the housing expert believes there is more to be desired due to high demands for affordable housing by residents of a lower area median income (AMI).

“(Prop 123) did support a lot of affordable housing development from 120% of AMI all the way down to zero,” LiFari said. “The challenge is that over 230 local governments have opted in, and so that $160 million or $320 million goes fast, so it’s far over prescribed for what the demand is requesting.”

“But the market is responding,” he added, “because the market will always outpace our governmental interventions.”

Cox, the Colorado Springs liaison for housing and homelessness, pointed to a need to offer more housing to people struggling to earn enough money for today’s home market.

“We need to be more mindful of the housing need for people, between zero and 30% of AMI folks that are making about $27,000 or less a year,” Cox said. “We know in Colorado Springs, about 82% of those folks are severely cost burdened. And 90% are paying more than 30% so there is a need in addition to sort of what the market will bear.”

“There needs to be a focus on that low income piece,” Cox added.

Part of Cox’s tasks is overseeing homeless initiatives.

The Colorado Springs approach differs from Denver, where Mayor Mike Johnston has opted for a housing first approach to combat homelessness. Denver’s mayor also vowed to create 3,000 more affordable housing options in 2024.

When touching upon how homeless people should be treated through affordable housing, Cox pointed to addressing what homeless people need most instead of housing.

“When you’re working with people who have been chronically homeless, who might have severe mental illness or substance use, physical disability, you know, significant trauma, it’s all about getting to know the individuals, knowing what their needs are and being able to address those very specific needs,” Cox said.

For LiFari, finding affordable housing will ultimately benefit everyone involved.

“What we haven’t been able to do is figure out how we can round out that bell curve and be able to provide and promulgate a regulatory environment at the local level,” LiFari said. “Let alone the state level, to provide homebuilders the ecosystem that is required to be able to deliver products to market at a price point that Coloradans can afford.”