Oilers? Panthers? Predicting the Stanley Cup champion | Evan’s take
Here we go again.
For the second straight year, it will be the Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers facing off in the the Stanley Cup Final.
Who could have possibly seen this coming? Well, anyone who saw the conference finals matchups had an inkling a rematch was likely. The Panthers’ Matthew Tkachuk willed it into existence during the handshake line after last year’s Game 7 victory over the Oilers.
“Let’s do this again next year,” Tkachuk told Connor McDavid.
So here we are. TV ratings are down in the United States and a rematch of the 2024 championship isn’t likely to fix that problem. But you will once again have the best hockey player in the world on the greatest stage.
Can McDavid get it done this time?
The fact that it was considered a down year for McDavid despite putting up 100 points in 67 games tells you all you need to know about the 28-year-old. He’s a freak, and in this reporter’s opinion, he’s up there with Mario Lemieux as the most talented hockey player we’ve ever seen.
That doesn’t mean he’s the best player of all-time. But from a talent perspective, it’s hard to think of many players with more.
A down regular season doesn’t mean much when he’s leading the postseason in points, and McDavid looks every bit as dominant as his stat line suggests. Florida will be his toughest test of the postseason to date. The Panthers did a pretty good job of holding him in-check during the Stanley Cup Final last year. McDavid exploded for eight points in Game 4 and 5, but he was held to just three points in the other five games. If the Panthers, who make life difficult for all their opponents, can slow down McDavid, they will take this series. McDavid will be without his best winger in Zach Hyman, who is out for the playoffs due to an upper-body injury.
One reason why Florida is set up for success against the Oilers is the fact they have the one player who is probably best suited for slowing down McDavid in Aleksander Barkov. The 29-year-old Finn was just awarded his third Selke Trophy, which is given every year to the best defensive forward in the league. Barkov does not produce score 100 points every season, but his all-around game makes him a top-10 player in the league. The Panthers are very deep up front, but Barkov vs. McDavid will likely determine this series.
Although both of those players are important, neither team is defined up front by just one player. Leon Draisaitl led the NHL in goals during the regular season. Unlike last year, he is healthy heading into the final. Hand and rib injuries slowed the giant German last year, as he was held to just three assists against the Panthers. A healthy Draisaitl is a game-changing add for an Oilers team that is also getting timely goals from their depth forwards.
Depth defines the Panthers. Anton Lundell, Brad Marchand and Eetu Luostarinen make up the best third line in hockey and Florida’s second-line isn’t too shabby either. Sam Bennett, who will be highly coveted as a free agent this summer, leads the Panthers with 10 goals. Tkachuk leads them with 11 assists.
Neither team has a superstar on defense, but both groups have not given the opposition much to work with. Gustav Forsling is the stopper for the Panthers, combining high hockey-IQ with a great stick, similar to that of Avalanche defenseman Devon Toews. The deadline addition of Seth Jones has been very important for the Panthers, as Jones leads the Panthers with an average of 25 minutes a night.
Edmonton is led by Evan Bouchard, who is one of the top producing defenseman in postseason history. They also just got back Mattias Ekholm from injury against the Dallas Stars, and they’ll need him to slow down the Panthers attack.
Then you get to goaltending. Stuart Skinner was very good against the Stars, but he’s still very much been an all-or-nothing guy in the playoffs. He’s either fantastic or bad. Sergei Bobrovsky has been great again for the Panthers and gives them the advantage in net.
The wild card in the series, as cliché as it sounds, will be special teams. Florida owns the best penalty kill in the playoffs, while the Oilers power play is just deadly. On the flip side, Edmonton’s penalty kill has not been good. If they don’t figure it out, the Panthers will bury them.
So who takes the series? This one could go either way, but McDavid looks like a man who will not be denied. I don’t trust Skinner in net, but I do trust McDavid and a healthy Draisaitl to get the job done.
Evan’s prediction: Oilers in 7