Friday Faceoff: How will we know if the Nuggets won the Michael Porter Jr.-for-Cam Johnson trade?

Vinny Benedetto, Nuggets writer

Answer: It will be obvious the Nuggets won the trade in the playoffs.

Michael Porter Jr. had some heroic postseason moments in a Nuggets uniform. Remember the game-tying 3 that saved what looked to be a broken possession in the final minutes of Game 2 against the Lakers last year? His struggles to consistently produce in the postseason were a much louder part of Denver’s last two exits, however. That includes his gutsy but largely ineffective effort against Oklahoma City in his final action as a member of the Nuggets before the trade that sent him to Brooklyn.

In 75 playoff games as a member of the Nuggets, Porter shot 37.4% from 3-point range. The 2024 postseason was his best showing at 40.7% from deep.

Cam Johnson is a 41.6% 3-point shooter in the playoffs. He shot 44.6% in his first postseason run when he helped the Suns reach the 2021 Finals. In his other two trips to the playoffs, he shot 37.3% for the Suns in 2022 and 42.9% for the Nets in 2023. He comes to the Nuggets with less playoff experience than his predecessor, but Denver’s new starting small forward has also never played with a guy who can create quality shots with the consistency that Nikola Jokic can.

Johnson is also a more versatile and cerebral offensive player than Porter. That’s going to help maintain his production even on nights when the shot isn’t falling. But the role he’s going to occupy sometimes requires the team’s sharpshooters camp out in the corner and stay ready to punish the teams that commit too many defenders to the Jokic and Jamal Murray two-man game, especially in close playoff games. Porter’s ability to do so ebbed and flowed.

The numbers say Johnson should be even more consistent in the biggest moments, and postseason success is what this trade and the rest of the offseason moves will be judged by in the long run.

Mark Kiszla, columnist

Answer: It’s all about the non-Jokic minutes

I don’t know whether Cam Johnson’s favorite frosty beverage is Moet & Chandon or Fanta Grape. But the first round is on me. Johnson will be formally introduced to Nuggets Nation at a press conference Friday, and to say I’m delighted is an understatement.

It’s not that I disliked the game of Michael Porter Jr. But, man oh man, did I despise the obscene amount of money the Nuggets paid MPJ to go stand on the perimeter and wait for the basketball to find him. Now there’s no doubt that Porter owns a sweet-looking jump shot. With an ample sample size to compare, however, Johnson has averaged 2.3 buckets from beyond the arc per game to 2.4 by MPJ over the course of their respective NBA careers.

I fully expect Porter can score at least 20 points per night for the gosh-awful Nets. And Johnson probably won’t average more than 16 points and four rebounds for Denver.

But it’s not head-to-head statistics that will determine whether the Nuggets won this trade. Denver sweetened the deal to unload MPJ by sending a 2032 first-round draft pick to Brooklyn. And that significant sweetener defines how desperate the Nuggets were to get salary-cap relief by getting off the $38 million salary Porter is due in the 2025-26 season.

With Johnson playing for the (relatively) bargain price of $21 million, it allowed Ben Tenzer and Jon Wallace to strengthen the Denver bench. They welcomed back Bruce Brown, then added Jonas Valanciunas and Tim Hardaway Jr. The moves could give Denver a bench built for a deep playoff run. Without Nikola Jokic on the court last season, the Nuggets had a pathetic net rating of minus-4.5 points, according to Statmuse. If a revamped roster can cut the deficit of the non-Jokic minutes in half, Denver will elbow its way past Oklahoma City and win the NBA championship.