The first year of the 12-team College Football Playoff was an unequivocal success. So much so that there might only be one year left of the current format.

Just like the decision to go from the Bowl Championship Series to the four-team playoff, the decision to expand to 12 teams felt like a no-brainer for years. Now, the decision to expand once again to 16 teams feels like a no-brainer (as long as we stop the expansion there) and it might not take a decade for the powers that be to realize it.

But, for at least one more year, there will be 12 teams vying for a national championship. Last year proved why 12 is better than four with No. 8 seed Ohio State overcoming a home loss to unranked rival Michigan in the final week of the regular season to run the table and capture the crown in Atlanta.

Somehow, this season feels even less predictable. There are very little-known commodities among the top preseason teams. Many, the defending national champion Buckeyes included, are dealing with a new quarterback, new coordinators, or both.

Who winds up fighting for it all in the title game in Miami in January is anyone’s guess. But here’s ours:

No. 1 seed: Clemson (ACC Champion)

Dabo Swinney finds himself with a team that looks eerily similar to the ones that won multiple national championships in the 2010s. The Tigers have a likely future first round NFL draft pick at quarterback in Cade Klubnik, a pair of defensive superstars in T.J. Parker and Peter Woods, plus the speed and athleticism at wide receiver that has been lacking in recent years. Clemson crashed the playoff last year somewhat surprisingly winning the ACC and after an impressive showing in the loss at Texas in the first round (plus a boatload of returning talent), the Tigers should be able to take advantage of an easy schedule and head into the playoff unbeaten.

No. 2 seed: Penn State (Big Ten champion)

Speaking of returning talent, no one has more of it than James Franklin and the Nittany Lions. For the first time since Joe Paterno was the head coach, it’s national championship or bust in Happy Valley — and for good reason. Penn State returns a proven star at quarterback in Drew Allar, the best running back duo in the nation in Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, a talented offensive line and a defense full of playmakers that is now led by former Ohio State coordinator Jim Knowles. The biggest question, once again, is wide receiver. Can Penn State answer it and finally get over the hump?

No. 3 Texas (SEC Champion)

In the playoff era (since 2014), only one No. 1 team in the preseason AP poll has gone on to win the national championship, Alabama in 2017. Steve Sarkisian’s Longhorns are out to buck that trend with prodigal Arch Manning finally taking over at quarterback after sitting behind Quinn Ewers for two seasons. But it’s not just the nephew of Peyton and Eli Manning that is cause for optimism in Austin. Texas might just have the best defense in the country and is battle-tested after a second straight trip to the semifinals last season.

No. 4 Ohio State (Big Ten at-large)

A month and a half after fans called for him to lose his job falling the loss to Michigan, Ryan Day finally found his breakthrough as Ohio State’s head coach, capturing the program’s first national championship since 2014 and taking down No. 1 Oregon, No. 5 Texas and No. 7 Notre Dame on the way. But things look a lot different this fall in Columbus. The aforementioned Knowles got paid a hefty amount to leave Ohio State for Penn State, offensive coordinator Chip Kelly returned to the NFL and there’s a new starting quarterback in unproven redshirt freshman Julian Sayin. But the Buckeyes still have arguably the two best individual players in the country, regardless of position, in wide receiver Jeremiah Smith and safety Caleb Downs.

No. 5 Georgia (SEC at-large)

This isn’t Kirby Smart’s most talented Bulldogs team. Far from it, in fact. The only Georgia player on the preseason AP All-America team is punter Brett Thorson. The Bulldogs only have two non-specialists on either the first or second team, but Georgia still just doesn’t lose games at home, and they only have one road game against a preseason top 25 opponent (No. 24 Tennessee). Texas comes to Athens late in the year, but that’s more than enough time for Smart and his staff to get this somewhat new-look roster into shape. Gunner Stockton is officially the team’s starting quarterback after Carson Beck departed for Miami after his season was cut short by an elbow injury last year.

No. 6 Alabama (Big Ten at-large)

The Crimson Tide have a slightly new look in year two under Kalen DeBoer. Dual-threat QB Jalen Milroe is off to the NFL and after a three-way battle to replace him, Ty Simpson is the program’s next starting quarterback. Alabama lost four games for the first time since 2007 in its first season without Nick Saban and that caused DeBoer to bring back Ryan Grubb as his offensive coordinator (the two worked together at Washington) and try to find a new spark with future top NFL draft picks Kadyn Proctor (left tackle) and Ryan Williams (wide receiver) leading the way.

No. 7 Oregon (SEC at-large)

After going unbeaten and winning the Big Ten in their first season in the conference, the Ducks fell flat on their face in the blowout loss to Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. Dan Lanning’s latest Oregon team has a different look to it and will be relying on some unproven names to step into bigger roles. That starts at quarterback as Dante Moore takes over for Dillon Gabriel and the former No. 1 overall recruit will have a lot to do in offensive coordinator Will Stein’s system. Even with another talented defense leading the way, the loss of star wide receiver Evan Stewart to a season-ending injury this summer has dampened the expectations slightly.

No. 8 Texas Tech (Big 12 champion)

The first real surprise on this list is the No. 23 team in the preseason AP poll, but the Red Raiders are spending like a team that plans to be in the playoff not just this season, but for years to come. Texas Tech has been a steady, seven-to-eight-win team in each of Joey McGuire’s first three seasons in Lubbock, but this is the year the Texas high school football legend puts it all together on the college stage. With the best transfer class in the country and enough veterans returning on both sides of the ball, the Red Raiders will win the Big 12 and earn the final home game in the first round of the playoff.

No. 9 LSU (SEC at-large)

Yes, the Tigers have lost every season opener of Brian Kelly’s tenure. Yes, it doesn’t get any easier with a road game at Clemson to start the 2025 campaign. But the Tigers have arguably one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Garrett Nussmeier and after spending plenty of money to try and address defensive issues, LSU should have enough talent to go 10-2 in the regular season.

No. 10 Miami (ACC at-large)

The Hurricanes seemed in prime position to win the ACC and reach the playoff a year ago with quarterback Cam Ward leading the way, but an all-too-familiar, late-season collapse thwarted those hopes. Miami is back for another go at the playoff in 2025 thanks to the addition of Beck at quarterback and an overhaul on defense.

No. 11 Iowa State (Big 12 at-large)

Yes, the Big 12 is going to be more than just a one-bid league this year after champion Arizona State was the conference’s only representative a year ago. It’s a dangerous game trying to predict who’s going to win the most chaotic conference in all of college football, but the Cyclones are about as safe a bet as it gets with 10-year coach Matt Campbell at the helm. Iowa State runs the table against a soft regular season schedule and falls to Texas Tech in the conference title game, but still manages to grab the last at-large spot.

No. 12 Boise State (Mountain West champion)

The Broncos aren’t the same team without Heisman runner-up and star running back Ashton Jeanty, but they’re still the best bet to represent the Group of Five for a second straight year. Boise State is the overwhelming favorite in the Mountain West and coach Spencer Danielson has amassed enough talent to beat everyone on his team’s schedule, outside of Notre Dame, and get back to the playoff.

National championship game: No. 2 Penn State over No. 1 Clemson

It feels like James Franklin’s entire Penn State tenure has been building to this point. There have been a lot of disappointing endings to seasons following the 2016 Big Ten championship, but the Nittany Lions are loaded on both sides of the ball once again and were seconds away from reaching the national championship game a year ago. Franklin finally gets it done and silences all the critics by delivering Penn State its first title in nearly 40 years.

The list: 5 other teams to watch to make the playoff

1. Notre Dame

It feels weird to not have the Fighting Irish in the 12-team playoff field after finishing as the runner-up last season, but there’s just too much turnover to count on Notre Dame making it back. Marcus Freeman cemented himself as one of the best coaches in the country and Jeremiyah Love might be the best running back in the country, but there’s just too much lost production to overcome.

2. Oklahoma

The schedule is just so brutal. Even though the Sooners completely revamped their offense and looked primed to take a massive step forward on that side of the ball thanks to the additions of coordinator Ben Arbuckle and quarterback John Mateer (both from Washington State), Oklahoma plays nine preseason top 25 teams.

3. Arizona State

One of the darlings of last season’s playoff, the Sun Devils are the preseason pick to repeat as Big 12 champions, but Arizona State has to find a way to replace the heart and soul of last year’s team, star running back Cam Skattebo. Sam Leavitt and Jordyn Tyson might be the best quarterback-wide receiver duo in the country, but the schedule is way less forgiving this time around with plenty of tough road games against potential Big 12 contenders.

4. South Carolina

The Gamecocks lost five NFL draft picks on defense but still have one key star returning on both sides of the ball in quarterback LaNorris Sellers and edge rusher Dylan Stewart. But Sellers, in particular, will need to be one of the biggest breakout stars in the country for South Carolina to overcome a brutal end to the season that includes six out of seven games against preseason top 25 opponents.

5. Washington

This may seem like a bit of a stretch after the Huskies didn’t receive a single vote in the preseason AP poll, but don’t be surprised if Jedd Fisch quickly figures things out in year two as the coach in Seattle. Washington has a potential superstar at quarterback in sophomore Demond Williams Jr., who was a revelation in the final two games of the season The Huskies’ only road game against a preseason top 25 team is at Michigan in mid-October.

Quotable

“I probably hear from my (old) teammates once a week. The things that they’ve said is, ‘Bring back the tradition. Bring back the mindset. Bring back the physical nature. Keep working, do your job, make sure those guys understand how it feels to truly work and get ready for a game.’ I owe those guys because they’re a representation of this university, as well as I am, and I’m in a position with my counterparts to make sure we do something special. Each and every day is an opportunity and we take it seriously.” — New Colorado offensive line coach and former Buffs All-American Andre Gurode on his first year back with the program