Virginia races tighten, Earle-Sears closes gap to 5 points
The political races for the top three jobs in Richmond have tightened again, an indication that the November Virginia election will be a nail-biter.
The just-released statewide survey from co/efficient showed Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears closing in on former Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger. The gap is 5 points, 48% to 43%.
A Roanoke College Poll released eight days ago had Spanberger up by 7 points, 46% to 39%.
New co/efficient Statewide VA Poll:
Governor:
Spanberger (D): 48%
Earle-Sears (R): 43%
Lt. Governor:
Reid (R): 43%
Hashmi (D): 43%
Attorney General:
Jones (D): 45%
Miyares (R): 44%
Aug 23-26, 2025 | 1,025 LVs | MoE ±3.1% | Not sponsored by any candidate or candidates…
— co/efficient (@coefficientpoll)
Earle-Sears appears to be benefiting from strong voter support for issues she has headlined in her campaign, such as deporting criminal immigrants, cracking down on crime, and ending the car tax.
Bolstering Spanberger was strong voter support for boosting jobs and protecting democracy.
Virginia political blogger Brandon Jarvis noted that the poll by the “Republican-aligned co/efficient” was the first after a commonwealth Democratic insider was pictured holding a racist sign at an Earle-Sears event. It went viral on social media. Earle-Sears will be the first black woman to be governor if she wins.
Virginia General Election Poll 8.26.25 by web-producers
The survey also showed that the races for lieutenant governor and attorney general are toss-ups.
In the lieutenant governor’s race, Democrat Ghazala Hashmi and Republican John Reid are tied at 43%, and current Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares is trailing Democratic challenger Jay Jones by just 1 point, 45% to 44%.
The off-year Virginia elections are typically seen as a bellwether for the following year’s congressional elections and a sign of support for new presidents.
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It is also an indicator of support for the governor, limited to one four-year term in Virginia. The new poll showed good support for Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) and the direction of the commonwealth.
Youngkin just cut a new ad with Earle-Sears, and President Donald Trump has also signaled support for her.
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