A Friday night game in the Houston heat will tell us a lot about the 2025 Colorado Buffaloes.

Deion Sanders’ team enters its Big 12 opener at the Cougars (5:30 p.m. ESPN) with a 1-1 record and a pair of uneven performances.

After hanging tough with a good Georgia Tech team, ultimately falling short 27-20 in the season opener, the Buffs’ 31-7 bounce-back win over Delaware in Week 2 may have looked better on the scoreboard than it did on the field.

Now, CU is the underdog in its first conference game of the season, and it’s against a team that won just four games last season and has two wins over lesser opponents to start this campaign.

Here are five storylines to watch in the Week 3 matchup:

The Staub Show

Coach Prime wouldn’t commit to a starting quarterback at his weekly press conference, but he did let it slip that redshirt sophomore Ryan Staub has been taking the majority of reps at practice. The Denver Gazette later asked him if he intends to play just one quarterback this week or use a rotation, like he did against Delaware, and he said he wants to go with just one player at the position. That would lead us to believe that it’s Staub’s job until he loses it. That may be during this game, it may be in a few weeks, or it might not happen at all. But the guy who entered the season as the third-string quarterback is likely going to be the starter three weeks into the season. Can he keep hold of it, or will the Buffs go back to Kaidon Salter at some point? 

Containing the run

It’s been the tale of two very different performances to start the season for the CU defense. After allowing over 400 yards (320 on the ground) against Georgia Tech, the Buffs allowed just 84 rushing yards against Delaware for under three yards per attempt. Which run stopping unit shows up this week on the road could determine the game, although the answer is probably that Houston will rush for a number somewhere in between 84 and 320, but the lower the better for the Buffs since the Cougars will likely lean on veteran running back Dean Connors, who has 182 yards and two touchdowns so far, to control the game on the ground.

A feature back emerging?

Speaking of players down the depth chart impressing early, the Buffs’ leading rusher through two games is the guy who was fourth on the depth chart a few weeks ago. Coastal Carolina transfer Simeon Price (who began his career at Mississippi State) led CU with 55 rushing yards against Delaware on just nine carries and is now ahead of both Micah Welch and DeKalon Taylor, the other two running backs to see the field so far, in yards. He could be in for a bigger role going forward with his 6 yards per carry average. 

Houston’s matchup nightmare

While Connors is one to watch out for, the Buffs can’t just sell out to stop the run, and that’s because the Cougars have a counter for that with tight end Tanner Koziol. One of the most sought-after players in the portal this offseason, Houston was able to get Koziol from Ball State, and he’s been as advertised through two games with 13 catches for 115 yards, both tops on the team. At 6-foot-7, 240 pounds and fleet-footed, Koziol is a player the Buffs defense doesn’t have an ideal player to match up against — nor does any team.

Buffs in the clutch

One-score games defined the Big 12 last season, and they’re likely going to determine who wins the conference again this season. After playing in just two one-score conference games a year ago (with a 1-1 record), it’s safe to say Coach Prime and company are due for plenty of them this fall, with the first potentially coming this Friday night. They’re already 0-1 this season after the loss to Georgia Tech, and another close loss could quickly dim hopes of competing for a Big 12 title.

King’s prediction

Houston 27, Colorado 23
This was a game I had the Buffs winning before the season, but I’m changing my pick after what I’ve seen through two weeks. Coach Prime’s team may right the ship and start playing consistently on both sides of the ball, even as early as this week, but it’s hard to predict that against a better-than-expected team in the Big 12 opener. The Cougars get a late stop against the CU offense to seal the win.