Recent service academy football history shows the unpredictable nature of these games, particularly when they seem their most predictable.

It was only 23 months ago that Air Force was 8-0 and favored by 18 points against Army in Denver, only to be turned away in a 23-3 defeat in front of more than 50,000 fans.

And it wasn’t even 10 months ago that Army, fresh off an American Athletic Conference championship, was a touchdown favorite against Navy. But it was the Midshipmen who walked away with the Commander-in-Chief’s trophy courtesy of a 31-13 trouncing.

Sometimes it’s that very sense of overconfidence that can throw the equation out of whack in these meetings of teams that play a similar style and know each other’s rosters in an in-depth way, having recruited many of them.

“I think you always have to be guarding against overconfidence in this game,” said Navy quarterback Blake Horvath, whose unbeaten Midshipmen (4-0) are favored by 11.5 points heading into Saturday’s matchup with Air Force (1-3) in Annapolis, Md.

“You have to be confident. Stress never made anybody play better. So, you’ve got to be confident. I think you see it in a lot of these games. … There are case studies, there are examples in the past of teams being overconfident. I think what you have to do in this game is understand you throw the records out. We always say it, but you really do have to. You can’t view the records or what Boise State does against this team or Utah State, because it’s different defenses, different offenses, you’re not as familiar with them. It’s always different and you’ve got to treat them with respect, and we always do.”

These series can turn on a dime, too. Air Force had won four in a row against Navy prior to last year, when the Mids won decisively 34-7 at Falcon Stadium.

And in 2020, under the oddity of COVID-19, it was Air Force – which had won 11 games the previous year but suffered one of its two losses at the hands of Navy – that blasted the Midshipmen 40-7.

Coach Troy Calhoun readily admits that no one knows how these, or most matchups, will go, least of all him.

“I don’t know why people bet,” Calhoun said, noting not just service academy games but the growing trend of wagering on sports. “A lot of times I have no clue what a line is or a spread is or over under is, but once in a while if it pops in front of you and I think, how in the world?

“I’m just telling you, man, why? Unless you really know and there’s some insider trading that you have where it’s stupid stuff, no one knows.”

There are plenty of variables playing in Navy’s favor. The Midshipmen are 14-3 since the start of last year, with two of those losses coming to ranked teams. Horvath and most of his surrounding cast have played significant time together since 2023. And while Air Force has lost three service academy games in a row, Navy is seeking its third straight win in these games.

Air Force’s defense has been among the worst in the country. Navy has the top rushing offense in college football and has averaged 34.1 points during a seven-game winning streak.

It seems pretty simple, but that’s just when these games have often been at their most baffling.