Potential snow forecasted 10-14 days out, but temperatures should cooperate for regular snowmaking

Two ski areas in Colorado are officially open for skiing and riding, marking the start to the 55th year (Keystone) and 79th year (Arapahoe Basin) at each resort respectively.

Light snow graced a few northern Colorado mountain locations Monday, but the bulk of the storm system jettisoned northward too much to bring heavier amounts of snow as previously forecasted.

Furthermore, a dry and calm early-November weather pattern looms as weather models indicate most storms will continue to stay north of Colorado for the next 8-10 days.

Recap:

Keystone Resort (Saturday) and Arapahoe Basin (Sunday) opened their slopes over the weekend, with Keystone snuffing Arapahoe Basin’s plan to be the first ski area not only in Colorado but North America to open first for winter 2025-26.

After each resort’s chairs shut down Sunday night, a dipping low pressure system moved into northern Colorado overnight Monday, bringing snow to ski areas, mostly north of Interstate 70.

It was snowing at places like Steamboat and Winter Park throughout daytime hours, but only higher on the mountains, as temperatures at the base areas weren’t cold enough to receive measurable snow.

Accumulated snowfall totals in the northern mountains were between 1 and 5 inches and in the central mountains between trace and 1 inch. The southern mountains did not benefit from the quickly passing storm.

Snowpack:

Colorado’s snowpack has been growing slowly since the water year began Oct. 1.

Currently the Natural Resources Conservation Service has Colorado’s snowpack at 41% of median average for the date Oct. 27 and 0.2 inches of snow water equivalent. The 1991-2020 median average snowpack for Oct. 27 is 0.5 inches of snow water equivalent.

The median average snowpack recorded for Oct. 27 during winters 2006-07 (211%) and 1986-87 (125%) was the highest overall from current NRCS data, however, each winter’s snow water equivalent was tied for the highest level at 2.3 inches.

It is still early in the season, but overall, October has recorded below-average snowfall since the beginning of the water year.

Forecast:

From Tuesday to Tuesday, Nov. 4, very little, if any stormy weather will push across Colorado’s mountains and bring any naturally fallen snow to the ski areas and backcountry.

Long range forecasting from both the GFS and ECMWF models show storm systems tracking northward away from Colorado during this time frame.

Furthermore, day time temperatures will generally be in the mid- to upper-40s at most base areas and mid- to high-30s at summits.

The good news, however, evening and night time low temperatures will stay below freezing, giving snowmakers good chances to blow snow each night while skiers and riders await more opening day news and the next snow event.

Long-term forecast:

The ECMWF model forecasts from Wednesday, Nov. 5 into Thursday, Nov. 6, a slight possibility of a short wave system pushing across Colorado, bringing snow back to the northern mountains.

The GFS model forecasts from Thursday, Nov. 6 to early Friday, Nov. 7 morning a storm system entering Colorado, bringing snow to all three mountains zones, then a second system bringing more snow from late Friday, Nov. 7 to late Saturday, Nov. 8.

More model runs from each agency will need to render to dial in better details because those dates are 10-13 days out.

Colorado ski resorts’ planned opening dates and 24-hour totals:

Arapahoe Basin – 0″

Aspen Highlands – Dec. 13

Aspen Mountain – Nov. 27

Beaver Creek – Nov. 26

Breckenridge – Nov. 7

Buttermilk – Dec. 13

Cooper – Dec. 10

Copper Mountain – Nov. 7

Crested Butte – Nov. 26

Echo Mountain – TBD

Eldora Mountain – Nov. 14

Granby Ranch – Nov. 26

Hesperus – Closed for the season

Howelsen Hill – Nov. 29

Kendall Mountain – December

Keystone – 0″

Loveland – Open as soon as conditions allow

Monarch – Nov. 21

Powderhorn – Nov. 22

Purgatory – Nov. 22

Silverton – Private mountain after Dec. 1, Guided and Heli season Dec. 27

Snowmass – Nov. 27

Steamboat – Nov. 22

Sunlight – Dec. 12

Telluride – Nov. 27

Vail – Nov. 14

Winter Park – Open as soon as conditions allow

Wolf Creek – Open as soon as conditions allow