WASHINGTON – U.S. private payrolls unexpectedly declined in November as small businesses shed jobs, but the weakness is probably not a true reflection of the labor market’s health, with recent government data showing layoffs remaining at low levels late last month.

Economists also cautioned against reading too much into the ADP employment report published on Wednesday, arguing its monthly estimate has historically diverged from the government’s private payrolls count produced by the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics.

“It is too loosely correlated with the official data to be troubling,” said Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “It would be unwise to lower forecasts for the official data, however, on the back of ADP’s number, given its awful track record.”

Private employment decreased by 32,000 jobs last month after an upwardly revised 47,000 increase in October, the ADP report showed. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment rising by 10,000 jobs after a previously reported 42,000 rebound in October.

Small establishments lost 120,000 jobs last month, which some economists attributed to tariffs on imports that have raised costs for businesses. Payrolls at medium enterprises increased 51,000 while those at large businesses rose 39,000.

The ADP report is jointly developed with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab. The BLS will release the closely watched employment report for November on Dec. 16.

The report, originally due on Dec. 5, was delayed by the recently ended shutdown of the government. It will include nonfarm payrolls for October. The unemployment rate for October will never be known as the longest shutdown in history prevented the collection of data for the household survey from which the jobless rate is calculated.

While the ADP has suggested a deterioration in labor market conditions, first-time applications for state unemployment benefits have been consistent with the “no hire, no fire” narrative. Economists say economic uncertainty stemming from tariffs has left the labor market in a state of paralysis.

The economy added 119,000 jobs in September, with the unemployment rate rising to a four-year high of 4.4%.

Federal Reserve officials meeting next week to decide on interest rates will not have November’s employment report in hand and some economists said they could pay more attention to the ADP report, despite its flaws.

As many as five of the 12 voting policymakers on the central bank’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee have voiced opposition to or skepticism about cutting rates further, while a core of three members of the Washington-based Board of Governors wants rates to fall.

“The ADP report might be all that it needs for the more dovish-leaning governors to counter some hawkish-leaning regional presidents to push through another rate cut,” said Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.