Here is analysis of which political party, Democratic or Republican, will win the 2026 general elections for the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives this November.

Because the president will not be on the ballot in November, such elections are often referred to as “midterm” elections.

More important, however, these elections are occurring in the “sixth year” of Donald Trump’s presidency.

Trump was elected to his first four-year term as president in 2016. He failed to be reelected in 2020 (losing to Democrat Joe Biden), but Trump was elected to a second four-year term in 2024. 

The 2026 elections thus are occurring in the sixth year of Trump’s split-term presidency.

It is a well-established long-range pattern in U.S. elections that the incumbent president’s political party loses large numbers of congressional seats in a sixth-year general election.

A classic example of this occurred when Gen. Dwight D. Eisenhower was elected president in 1952 and reelected in 1956 by a large majority.

However, in the sixth year of Eisenhower’s presidency, 1958, there was a severe economic recession. Eisenhower’s Republican Party lost heavily in the Senate and House elections, giving Democrats large working majorities in Congress.

Another example of this rule occurred in 1974. Republican Richard Nixon, first elected president in 1968 and reelected in 1972, became involved in the Watergate scandal and had to resign. Democrats made large gains in both the Senate and House in 1974. 

So here is one possible and historically reasonable prediction for the 2026 elections, only 10 months away.

Based on the historical pattern and no other factors, Republicans should lose large numbers of seats in the Senate and House. Given that the current Senate and House Republican majorities are very narrow, this possible outcome would guarantee Democrats will win solid majorities in both legislative chambers in Congress and switch both majorities from narrowly Republican to clearly Democratic.

That would mean Trump would have to deal with a hostile Democratic Congress during his final two years as president and would need considerable Democratic support to get any of his legislation enacted.

So, what could happen that would upend this historical pattern of the incumbent president’s political party losing big in the sixth year of the presidency?

Begin with foreign policy.

There are three big foreign policy issues that offer Trump the opportunity to score some victories and thereby reduce the anticipated electoral damage.

One issue is the war in Ukraine.

If real and durable peace can be negotiated and the combat deaths and destruction stopped, Trump and the Republicans running for Congress would have a winning issue.

A second foreign policy issue is the struggle between Israel and Hamas for control of Gaza.

If, by Election Day, Israel and Hamas have stopped fighting and the peaceful rebuilding of Gaza is underway, then Trump will look good and Republican election losses would be reduced.   

A third foreign policy problem for Trump and Republicans running for election will be the continuing threats by China to militarily invade and control Taiwan.

Here again, Trump and Republican candidates will benefit if the Chinese threats against Taiwan are muted and the danger of war in that section of the Pacific is reduced.

To sum up on foreign policy, Trump must visibly make solid progress on all three of these critical foreign policy issues if he wants to avoid big Democratic gains and severe Republican losses in November.

And now a shift from foreign policy to domestic policy.

Trump and Republican candidates for Congress in 2026 must counteract the creeping inflation that has raised prices for average American voters at the grocery store, at the department store and online.

Inflation, defined here as a more than 2% annual rise in the cost of living for a number of recent years, is what can be called a “life space” issue.

Unlike foreign policy issues, which are interesting but unlikely to affect a voter’s daily life, “life space” issues like inflation directly affect voters every time they make a purchase.

Life space issues thus have a much bigger effect on citizens’ lives and are a much more powerful influence on how they vote.

And there are other issues that could work to Trump’s benefit in the election.

For instance, Trump supporters in states like Texas have succeeded in redistricting the state so that Republicans will win more seats in the U.S. House than the Democrats.

A final point is that the results of a big electoral shift would not just affect races for the U.S. Senate and U.S. House. If the anticipated Democratic sweep in November does, indeed, take place, it will elect Democrats running for state legislatures and other elected offices down the ballot.

A final summation:

The Democrats could be headed for the customary sweep in the November 2024 general elections.

If that predicted result is not to happen, Trump will have to score a series of both foreign policy and domestic policy victories.

As this crucial election year goes by, keep your eye on those three foreign policy issues and inflation. If Trump cannot make progress on those four issues, the sixth-year jinx should hit him, and the Republican Party, hard.

News columnist Bob Loevy is a retired professor of political science at Colorado College who writes about national and Colorado politics.