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Colorado’s congressional redistricting proposal could flip two Republican house seats | Analysis

A Democrat-backed proposal to redraw Colorado’s congressional map for the 2028 election could flip two Republican districts, including one that has never voted otherwise.

The proposal, introduced by Coloradans for a Level Playing Field, is yet another effort in a national redistricting wave after President Donald Trump called to redraw U.S. House districts last year and would redraw the state’s map for the 2028 election.

An analysis of the proposal shows that the redrawn map could lead to a flip of two Republican house seats to Democrat representatives in the 2028 election, including District 5, which has never voted for a Democratic representative in its over-half-decade of existence, according to composite election data.

Two election maps compared side by side
Colorado’s 2022 congressional district map (left) compared to Coloradans for a Level Playing Field’s proposed redrawing (right) to be used for the 2028 election. Illustrated using Dave’s Redistricting. (Michael Braithwaite / The Denver Gazette)

In recent elections, Colorado’s Districts 3, 4 and 5 have been more favorable to Republican candidates. District 3 covered the western half of the state, from Aspen and Glenwood Springs to Grand Junction and the Western Slope, as well as Pueblo. District 4 covered the Eastern Plains and Castle Rock, and District 5 Colorado Springs.

Colorado’s new map would expand much of District 2, currently represented by Joe Neguse (D), westward to the Utah border, absorbing the northwest corner of District 3 in the process. It would also see District 4, currently represented by Lauren Boebert (R), taking on the eastern half of District 5, currently represented by Jeff Crank (R), with that district absorbing District 4’s area west of Castle Rock in return.

District 7, currently represented by Brittany Petterson (D), District 6, currently represented by Jason Crow (D), and District 1, currently represented by Diana DeGette (D), all remain relatively unchanged in the new proposal. District 8, currently represented by Gabe Evans (R), will now include Castle Rock in its area.

The proposed changes seem to disproportionately affect districts that have voted for republican representatives in recent elections, cracking, or dividing, their voter base along precinct, rather than county, lines.

A congressional map outlined with counties
A map of Colorado’s 2026 congressional districts proposed by Coloradans for a Level Playing Field with the state’s counties highlighted. Illustrated using Dave’s Redistricting. (Michael Braithwaite / The Denver Gazette)

Most specifically, El Paso and Douglas County, both generally considered Republican strongholds, are each now split in half between Districts 4 and 5. Mesa and Pueblo Counties, too, are no longer wholly in one district or another.

The last time District 3 voted for a Democratic representative was when John Salazar was elected in 2008. That was the same year when District 4 elected its last Democrat, Betsy Markey, for the position. District 5, which was created in 1972, has never been represented by a Democrat in its 50-plus year history.

Yet, with the proposed congressional redrawing, two of those districts appear to be in danger of losing their Republican seats in 2028.

A graph showing the change in republican voters by congressional district
Composite data from the 2016-2020 elections that is then used in conjunction with the 2020 U.S. Census for the 2022 and 2026 measurements, and the 2010 Census for the 2012 measurement, estimates that the state’s proposed congressional map redrawing could increase the possibility that Districts 3 and 5 see their Republican seats flipped Democrat. Data courtesy of Dave’s Redistricting, illustrated using Datawrapper. (Michael Braithwaite / The Denver Gazette)

The proposal, which is backed by the House Majority PAC, has been filed in four versions of a 2026 ballot measure, all of which vary in how long the redistricted map would be used for and how it would be legally implemented in place of Colorado’s current congressional map.

A review and comment hearing with the Colorado General Assembly’s nonpartisan Legislative Council staff, the first step in the process of adopting the proposal, is slated for Tuesday.

Several states, including California, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas have already redrawn their congressional maps ahead of the 2026 midterm election. Of those states, California’s is the only map that favors Democrats.

Colorado Politics Reporter Marianne Goodland and The Associated Press contributed to this report.


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