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Lakers, Rockets or T-Wolves? Ranking Nuggets’ first-round playoff matchups | Vinny’s take

It’s going to be a wild final month of the regular season for the Nuggets, Lakers, Rockets, Timberwolves and their fans.

Heading into Saturday’s NBA slate, half a game separated Houston in third place and Minnesota in sixth — with the Lakers and Nuggets playing for fourth place.

Minnesota has the toughest remaining strength of schedule out of the group with the Lakers not far behind, according to Tankathon’s metrics. Houston has the easiest with Denver not far behind. The Rockets and Timberwolves play two more times, while the Lakers have two games left against both the Thunder and Rockets. Two of the Nuggets’ toughest games remaining come against the Thunder and Spurs in the final two games of the regular season.

Oklahoma City and San Antonio by that point may be resting their stars.

Each of the four teams will be pushing for the No. 3 seed as long as Oklahoma City holds off San Antonio for the best record in the Western Conference. Regardless of the seeding, Denver can plan on seeing the Lakers, Rockets or Timberwolves in the first round.

Let’s rank the Nuggets’ preferable opponents in the first round:

  1. Rockets

Denver should want Houston, which has a couple of problems. The Rockets’ best defender, Amen Thompson, has been dared to shoot by many teams this season. Some have gone as far as having their center float around the rim while ignoring Thompson on the perimeter. The Rockets can infuse some shooting into the lineup with Reed Sheppard, but the 6-foot-2 guard can be hunted on the defensive end. Those problems will be exploited more than ever in a postseason series. Season-ending injuries to Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams have left Houston short on ball handling and physicality. The Nuggets went 3-1 against the Rockets this season. Denver was without three of its best defenders — Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun and Peyton Watson — in the one loss. Whether it’s the roster’s shortcomings or something else, the Rockets at times haven’t looked connected. If that continues in the postseason, Houston’s not going anywhere but home.

Houston Rockets center Alperen Sengun, left, looks to pass the ball as Denver Nuggets forward Aaron Gordon defends in the first half of an NBA basketball game Wednesday, March 11, 2026, in Denver.
Houston Rockets center Alperen Sengun, left, looks to pass the ball as Denver Nuggets forward Aaron Gordon defends in the first half of an NBA basketball game Wednesday, March 11, 2026, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

2. Lakers

If this is it for LeBron James, wouldn’t the Nuggets love to be the team to send the NBA’s all-time leading scorer into retirement? Denver’s still the only team in the NBA to boast a winning record against the Lakers’ 41-year-old star over his career. The recent history strongly favors the Nuggets, but an inspired James alongside Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves provides enough offensive firepower and playoff experience to make things interesting, but Denver would go into the series favored for good reason.

Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James (23) drives between Denver Nuggets guards Christian Braun (0) and Bruce Brown (11) in the first half of an NBA basketball game Thursday, March 5, 2026, in Denver.
Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James (23) drives between Denver Nuggets guards Christian Braun (0) and Bruce Brown (11) in the first half of an NBA basketball game Thursday, March 5, 2026, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

3. Timberwolves

Disregard Denver’s 3-1 record against Minnesota this season. The Timberwolves remain a problem for the Nuggets. Anthony Edwards didn’t play in the first meeting, and Denver produced a nine-point comeback on Christmas to sweep the first three meetings. Braun does what he can against Edwards to typically mixed results. Jokic often gives Rudy Gobert a bunch of buckets, but Minnesota has found success daring the rest of the Nuggets to beat them with Jaden McDaniels following Jamal Murray around the court. The Nuggets are capable of beating the Timberwolves, but it won’t be an easy series. Denver’s most demanding path back to the Finals features Minnesota in the first round, San Antonio in the second and Oklahoma City in the conference finals.

Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray (27) and Minnesota Timberwolves forward Jaden McDaniels (3) in the first half of an NBA basketball game Thursday, Dec. 25, 2025, in Denver.
Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray (27) and Minnesota Timberwolves forward Jaden McDaniels (3) in the first half of an NBA basketball game Thursday, Dec. 25, 2025, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

LAKERS 127, NUGGETS 125, OT

What happened: Los Angeles led by eight after the first quarter and owned a 61-50 advantage at halftime. Denver tied the game by the end of the third quarter and led by seven in the final four minutes before Austin Reaves forced overtime. Luka Doncic hit a baseline jumper with less than a second left in overtime to keep the Lakers in fourth place in the Western Conference and drop Denver to 41-27.

What went right: Nikola Jokic dropped another triple-double with 24 points, 16 rebounds and 14 assists. He also recorded five steals and a block in 43 minutes of playing time.

What went wrong: Jamal Murray fouled out early in overtime and finished with five points in 36 minutes. He went 1 of 14 from the field with six rebounds and six assists. The Lakers secured the head-to-head tiebreaker with the win.

Highlight of the night: Nikola Jokic threw a no-look pass over his head to Tim Hardaway Jr., who was cutting along the baseline. It looked like Hardaway was going up for a dunk before LeBron James showed up, and Denver’s sixth man adjusted in the air and finished with a layup.

Up next: The Nuggets are back in action at home against the 76ers on Tuesday.

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