Air Force occupies a familiar place amid today’s college sports realignment news – sitting in a fixed position, watching the changes rotate around it like new constellations.

On Wednesday a new Pac-12 will be born. Air Force’s longtime Mountain West foes Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Utah State will join it.

Those five will join Oregon State and Washington State, the last remnants of the old Pac-12, as well as Texas State.

This shouldn’t be seen as a happy day for Air Force or the others remaining in the Mountain West – Hawaii, Nevada, New Mexico, San Jose State, UNLV and Wyoming (along with newcomers North Dakota State, Northern Illinois and UTEP).

The Mountain West is certainly not better off from a competitive standpoint for this move. But Air Force, in the long run, likely will be.

The Falcons were smart to stand pat while change swirled around them, just as they’ve had to do with the proliferation of name, image and likeness (NIL) money (not allowed at a service academy) and the frequent traffic of transfers (the academies have players check out through the portal but aren’t programed to receive).

It’s not that Air Force football wouldn’t have been able to compete with the new Pac-12.

The Falcons won their last four matchups with Fresno State and their past three vs. San Diego State. They took eight of the past nine vs. Colorado State (including five straight in Fort Collins). They pummeled Oregon State 28-0 in their lone meeting in 2024, limiting the Beavers to 18:04 in possession time. Their lone meeting with Washington State, in the 2019 Cheez-It Bowl, saw the Falcons win 31-21 and rush for 371 yards.

Utah State proved to be an evenly matched opponent, with the teams going 6-6 against each other as conference opponents and amassing an aggregate total score of 378-375 in favor of the Aggies.

Even against Boise State, the best of the lot, the Falcons reeled off three wins in a row at one point and their four wins in the series are as many as any other team had against the Broncos during their time in the Mountain West.

But realistically, was this sustainable as changes continue to permeate college sports? Back-to-back losing seasons for Air Force illustrate the fragility of their position.

The very decision of the five departing teams to bolt for the Pac-12 indicates their athletic ambitions. Air Force needs athletics as one of its three pillars (along with military and academics), but it will never seek to define itself through sports.

The new Pac-12 is filled with programs with backgrounds and budgets better suited to build NIL war chests and land coveted transfers than the teams now making up the Mountain West. It’s good for Air Force to compete with something a little closer to its peers, though it won’t truly find that outside of West Point and Annapolis.

This also isn’t a drop akin to sliding to FCS. ESPN’s holistic SP+ football rankings for 2026 have the new Pac-12 teams at an average rank of 81.1. The Mountain West – including No. 79 Air Force – averages 95.6.

That difference won’t alter life as Air Force knows it, but it will make the week-to-week grind a little more manageable and a conference championship – something the Falcons haven’t won in the Mountain West in football – more attainable.

Would a 2026 Mountain West conference championship mean as much as it would have in 2025? Maybe not. But I can assure you the celebration would be just as jubilant and sincere and the banner would look the same to future gazing eyes.

It’s noble to seek a challenge. It’s foolish to lack the self-awareness to know your limitations within the confines you face. Air Force chose wisely, and that’s without considering the financial incentives the Mountain West offered to stay.

And aside from football, the downshift will be even more beneficial for Air Force’s programs nearly across the board that generally compete as underdogs in conference play. Remember, Gonzaga is joining the Pac-12 in basketball. Air Force basketball does not need that challenge.

Change was coming for Air Force no matter how you look at this. In resisting a launch it was ill-suited to make, Air Force set itself up to be a star in its new surroundings.