U.S. Cyber Monday spending to hit $14.2 billion, Adobe forecasts

U.S. consumers were expected to spend $14.2 billion on Cyber Monday, according to Adobe Analytics, set to build on strong Black Friday momentum as AI-powered shopping tools drive online sales.

Americans were set to spend 6.3% more online from a year earlier on Cyber Monday, traditionally seen as the country’s biggest online shopping day, marking the culmination of the Thanksgiving shopping weekend.

U.S. online spending on Black Friday hit a record $11.8 billion, according to Adobe Analytics, which tracks 1 trillion visits that shoppers make to online retail websites. Consumers switched to chatbots to compare prices and secure discounts amid concerns about tariff-driven price hikes.

“AI is the ultimate purchase accelerator, guiding consumers with clear intent straight to the buy button,” said Caila Schwartz, director of Consumer Insights at Salesforce.

Over half of the online spending on Cyber Monday was expected to be driven by three categories – electronics, apparel and furniture – according to Adobe, with Americans looking to get their holiday shopping completed.

This year’s holiday season has seen retailers become more careful with discounts, while also launching early promotions to lock in sales. Walmart’s sales began on Nov. 14 and ran in three phases through Monday, with Walmart+ members getting early access.

Retailers have also doubled down on using artificial intelligence to lure shoppers. The AI-driven traffic to U.S. retail sites is expected to increase by 670% compared to last year, Adobe said, when artificial intelligence tools such as Walmart’s Sparky or Amazon’s Rufus had not yet been launched.

For the November-December holiday season overall, the National Retail Federation estimates that U.S. shoppers will spend more than $1 trillion for the first time this year. But the rate of growth is slowing — with an anticipated increase of 3.7% to 4.2% year over year, compared with 4.3% during last year’s holiday season.

At the same time, credit card debt and delinquencies on other short-term loans have been rising. More and more shoppers are turning to “buy now, pay later” plans, which allow them to delay payments on holiday decor, gifts and other items.

Buy now, pay later loans are expected to drive $20.2 billion in online spending this holiday season, according to Adobe, up 11% from last year. The firm predicted that buy now, pay later loans would pass a new $1 billion milestone on Cyber Monday,.

Across the holiday season, “hot sellers” will include gaming consoles such as the Nintendo Switch 2 and toys-turned-fashion statements like Labubu Dolls, Adobe said. The analytics company anticipates the newest editions of popular consumer electronics — including the iPhone 17Google Pixel 10 and Samsung Galaxy S25 — will also see high demand.

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