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GUEST COLUMN: Declining K-12 enrollment is a wake-up call

News reports confirm what many school districts already know: public school enrollment in Colorado is steadily declining. The state lost roughly 10,000 public school students in just the past year, part of a multi-year trend now playing out nationwide.

Some have sounded the alarm. In truth, this moment is less a crisis than a realignment — driven primarily by falling birthrates, migration patterns, and changing family needs. It presents Colorado with a choice: adapt and embrace a more flexible education landscape, or cling to systems designed for a different era.

Parents are already voting with their feet. Across Colorado and the nation, families are choosing alternatives such as charter schools, micro-schools, homeschooling co-ops, faith-based learning, and hybrid models that offer greater personalization. Educational choice has grown not because families are abandoning education; they are actively searching for new environments where their children can thrive.

This shift is not a threat to public education. Done right, it can strengthen it.

Some argue that educational choice is to blame for declining enrollment. In reality, only a small share of families are pursuing innovative education models — often without access to formal choice programs or financial support. Yet even for Coloradans with limited choice, parents still desire options that reflect their children’s unique needs.

Getty images
Getty images

We’ve seen how this dynamic can work. Well established in Florida, as school choice programs expanded and enrollment patterns shifted, public schools didn’t collapse — they improved. Math and reading scores rose, absenteeism declined, and low-income students saw gains even if they never used a choice program themselves. Competition and flexibility created incentives to respond to student needs, not lower standards.

Colorado now has an opportunity to follow a similar pragmatic path, thanks in part to the new Education Freedom Tax Credit — and Gov. Polis’ decision to opt our state into the program. 

At a time when education debates often fold into partisan battles, Gov. Polis chose to support students over politics. His decision ensures that Colorado families — not families in other states — will benefit from privately funded scholarships that support tuition, tutoring, special-needs services, and other educational options. Importantly, the initiative raises no taxes, does not divert state dollars from public schools, and even provides additional support for public school students.

That distinction matters. If a state opts out, donor dollars don’t disappear — they simply flow across state lines. Opting in keeps those resources here, supporting Colorado children and the schools and services that serve them.

This year alone, ACE Scholarships provided more than 4,600 scholarships to Colorado students, yet still received applications from more than 800 additional qualified families we simply could not fund.

These parents aren’t making political statements; they’re asking for help for children who may be struggling academically, socially or emotionally in environments that aren’t the right fit. The Education Freedom Tax Credit offers a way to reach families who qualify and help close that gap.

Empowering families doesn’t weaken public education. It strengthens the entire ecosystem by encouraging innovation, responsiveness, and excellence.

The urgency is clear. Nationally, just 35% of 12th-graders are college-ready in reading, and nearly half score below basic in math – the lowest level in decades. Learning loss has hit lower-income students hardest, widening gaps that already threaten upward mobility and long-term economic growth.

Against that backdrop, enrollment declines should be a wake-up call, not a panic button. Families aren’t rejecting public education. In many cases, they are walking toward better opportunities for their children.

Public education can – and should – remain a cornerstone of our state. But preserving institutions cannot come at the expense of student learning. A healthy system prioritizes outcomes over systems, students over politics.

Colorado’s decision to opt into the Education Freedom Tax Credit signals that we don’t have to choose between strong public schools and parental empowerment. We can support both. Demographic realities demand adaptation — and Colorado has chosen to respond, not resist.

The future of education in Colorado won’t be defined by how many students remain in traditional public schools, but by how many families have access to learning environments that work for them.

Gov. Polis deserves credit for recognizing that – and for acting when it mattered.

Norton Rainey is the CEO of Denver based ACE Scholarships.



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