Is the United States like the Byzantine Empire? Is our nation about to lose its position as the most powerful and influential country in the world, just as the Byzantine Empire did in 1453 when Constantinople (now Istanbul) was conquered by the Turkish army?

Victor Davis Hanson, a historian who contributes occasional opinion columns to The Gazette, made that argument in these pages a while ago. He argued that, because of thousands of immigrants coming over the U.S. southern border, homelessness and drug addiction ruining our downtowns, and China growing in military power, the United States will soon no longer be the leader of the present world civilization.

Hanson implied this U.S.-led civilization, growing steadily in power and influence since the end of World War II, will fall — and that will result in worldwide chaos and disorder.

Here’s a second opinion. We are calling in Arnold J. Toynbee, the British historian of the mid-20th century, who predicted that the United States was building a world civilization that would eliminate major competition and would remain in power for 300 to 400 years.

Toynbee argued that our world civilization began with the Renaissance in Western Europe. At the beginning, there were many nations and many centers of power. As military techniques improved, Toynbee contended, a few of the more populous and wealthy nations competed with each other to be the world civilization leader.

At the end of World War II, the United States and the Soviet Union were the last two powerful contenders for world leadership. With the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991, the United States in the 1990s emerged as what was called “the world’s last great superpower.”

Toynbee shared Hanson’s concerns about the fall of civilizations. Toynbee’s life work was the study of more than 20 civilizations that emerged and created a period (in their region of the world) of order, discipline, well-being, and relative peace. But every one of these previous civilizations, after a few hundred years or so in power, eventually was overthrown by outside powers or inside revolutionaries, or both.

And in every case, the fall of the world civilization resulted in a return to international discord, to increased warfare, and a general decline in personal well-being. A typical example was the disruptive Middle Ages that followed the fall of the Roman Empire.

But our world civilization is different from all the others in several important ways, Toynbee noted. First has been the development of British and United States-style democracy, often guaranteed by written constitutions, in the 18th and 19th centuries.

Previous world civilizations were either monarchies or dictatorships. The average citizen had no say and virtually no stake in the governing of the civilization. Our world civilization, with its emphasis on democratic forms of government and the resulting enhancement of the position and power of the individual, is unique in human history.

It is also important to note the emphasis on independent, self-governing nations in our world civilization. The ideas of the American Revolution, that peoples should be allowed to govern themselves rather than being controlled by a foreign power, are found throughout the civilization.

The United States has not built an empire and sent out governors from Washington, D.C., to rule over it. We have built, instead, a world civilization of independent nations and have sought to bring order through treaties and trade agreements rather than dictates from a world power center.

Instead of an empire, the United States has built a confederacy of independent nations joined together through voluntary mutual agreements, the two most important being the charter of the United Nations and NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization).

Toynbee also was impressed with the material affluence of our emerging world civilization. He called it “industrialization,” the modern ability of people to use machines to produce great quantities of consumer goods that are widely distributed throughout the population.

The result has been to begin the formation of a worldwide “middle class.” Middle class is defined as having nice homes to live in, good schools for children to go to, thriving economies that create widespread employment, and available medical care.

A recent study made the point that about half the world’s population now has enough in the way of material goods that we can portray them as middle class. No previous civilization has come anywhere near being able to do this, and we can expect more people on planet Earth over the next few years to gain this middle-class status.

Toynbee argued that more people today should appreciate that they live in a thriving world civilization. There have been no major, global wars since the end of World War II. Trade agreements enable average persons to have a choice of goods to buy that were manufactured in many different nations. Jet airplanes and bank credit cards enable much of the world to safely travel to other nations and pay for goods and services consumed.

According to Toynbee, only about 1 in 6 humans who have ever lived have had the privilege of living in a world civilization rather than in a period of discord and suffering such as the Middle Ages.

Hanson predicts the fall of the world civilization built by the United States could be imminent. Toynbee’s view differs. He sees our civilization as unique, with democracy, constitutionalism, national independence, and material benefits not found in any previous world empire.

Hanson points to problematic issues that call out for remedy; yet we are more in agreement with a recent Economist magazine feature story, “Riding High” (April 15, 2023), that celebrates America’s impressive economic record. The United States today accounts for 58% of the G7’s GDP, compared with 40% in 1990. The five biggest corporate sources of research and development are American. Laptop computers, iPhones and AI developments mostly occurred here.

America is notable as the most desirable country for international students and intellectual immigrants.

China is plainly a major economic rival; yet it is likely China will, in the future as in the past, be an economic partner more than a competing rival civilization.

There is still too much poverty and intolerance here; yet the aspirations of the American Experiment are strongly embraced. American prosperity is “riding high” — despite Hansen’s gloomy outlook.