In case you didn’t know, the National Weather Service publishes a product dubbed the ‘Risk of Heavy Snow’ map out of their Climate Prediction Center. While the map is described as ‘experimental,’ it aims to highlight the risk of heavy snow beyond the dates of their shorter term hazard forecasting.

Last winter, the map proved to be relatively accurate in predicting when major storms would occur, and if that holds true with the latest prediction, it could mean that Colorado gets its first truly significant snow of the season between November 14 and November 18. The area that would be hit includes much of the Centennial State’s mountainous terrain.

While Colorado was hit by a few waves of snow in October, warm temperatures limited accumulation and staying power. This makes it no surprise that the state is at just 14 percent of the snowpack that’s typical by November 6, with the southwestern corner of the state being the driest – at just 3 percent of this region’s norm for the date, lower than 92 percent of all years since records started in 1987.

Meanwhile, Denver is on track to have what will be at least its third-latest ‘first snow’ on record given the current forecast for the city. No snow is expected in Denver through at least November 20, with the long-term average ‘first snow’ date being October 18.