It’s looking like consistent snow is finally starting to be a reality in Colorado’s mountainous terrain as the ski season gets underway. Fresh flakes on the Front Range, however, continue to be unlikely.

Per the latest snowfall forecast from the National Weather Service, parts of Colorado could get between 12 and 18 inches of snow through Thursday morning if the ‘high-end’ snowfall forecast (10% chance) holds true, specifically in the area around Steamboat Springs and the Park Range. In this same scenario, southwest Colorado could get hit hard, too, with parts of this region having potential for up to a foot. The rest of the mountainous region should get some snow, as well, though probably to the tune of about two to six inches in this ‘high-end’ scenario.

In the more likely ‘expected’ snowfall scenario (80% chance), the Park Range near Steamboat Springs still gets about eight to 12 inches, while the rest of Colorado’s mountains get much less.

In both scenarios, the I-25 corridor should remain snowless through at least the morning of November 20.

See both maps below:

Looking further ahead, a ‘risk of heavy snow’ is possible in Colorado pretty much through the end of the month. Prior mapping had shown this risk encompassing much of the state from the period of November 21 to November 26 with a more recent map that accounts for ‘risk of heavy snow’ from November 24 through November 30 also featuring a large portion of Colorado in the risk zone. See that map below:

Despite a little bit of snow over the weekend, Colorado still lags behind the snowpack that’s typical for this point in the year in a major way. Currently, Colorado has a snowpack that’s at 24 percent of the norm at the statewide level, per the USDA. It’s also looking like Denver will have its second-latest ‘first snowfall’ since records started, likely to pass the ‘first snowfall’ of 1934, which took place on November 21. The city is unlikely to set an all-time record by passing the ‘first snowfall’ of 2021, however, which took place on December 10 as there’s currently a chance of snowfall in Denver on November 29 and 30.

Follow along with weather updates from the National Weather Service here.