Curious how the lack of snow is impacting Colorado’s ski industry? A Vail Resorts investor report that was published on January 15 provides a bit of insight.

At time of publishing, Colorado’s statewide snowpack sits at about 58 percent of the norm for the date – another day at all-time lows, at least since records started in 1987. As the end of January approaches and with about three months left before resorts start shutting down come spring, that lack of snow has been limiting operations at many ski areas around the state.

As this piece pertains to the investor report from Vail Resorts, let’s take a look at how much terrain is available at spots on the Epic Pass.

At Breckenridge, 72 of 193 trails are open (37%). At Keystone, 82 trails of 142 (58%). At Vail, 165 trails of 277 (60%), and at Crested Butte, 89 of 168 (53%). And of course, there’s Beaver Creek, which has just 46 of 167 trails open – the lowest share among the group at just 31 percent. That means that of the 947 Vail Resorts owned trails in Colorado, just 454 are open – 48 percent.

Note: These numbers were gathered from resort websites at about 9:50 a.m. on January 20 and may be subject to rapid change.

It’s easy to imagine how the lack of open terrain might have an impact on someone’s decision to head to the mountain – after all, less terrain means more people funneled to terrain that is available, and less fresh snow can mean icy conditions and a higher risk of damaging skis in areas of lower coverage.

Numbers provided by Vail Resorts seem to reflect this sentiment, too, with the investor report indicating that skier visits are 20 percent compared to the same period the prior year. Ski school revenue is down, too, by 14.9 percent, along with dining revenue, down 15.9 percent. Retail and rental data is down less – about six percent, as is lift revenue, down 1.8 percent. It’s also important to keep in mind that this data includes all Vail Resorts destinations, not just those in Colorado, though Colorado spots seem to be among the places hit the hardest by the lack of snow, with Vail Resorts noting that other key places have seen significant improvements in snowpack since the December holidays hit, also noting that ski areas of the eastern United States have had a good year, thus far.

“We experienced one of the worst early season snowfalls in the western U.S. in over 30 years, which limited our ability to open terrain and negatively impacted visitation and ancillary spending for both local and destination guests during the period,” said Vail Resorts CEO Rob Katz of the situation. “Snowfall at our western U.S. resorts for November and December was approximately 50% below the historical 30-year average. In the Rockies, snowfall was down nearly 60% versus the historical 30-year average, resulting in approximately 11% of terrain being opened in December. Conditions in Tahoe were near historic lows through mid-December while Whistler also had a slower start to the season, though both improved with significant snowstorms over the holiday period, which enabled us to greatly expand terrain. Early season conditions at our eastern U.S. ski
areas were strong, which provided a partial offset to the broader weather headwinds and highlights the benefit of our geographically diverse network of
resorts. Following the holiday period, conditions across our resorts in the Rockies have improved, although conditions remain near historic lows for this
time of the season.”

Katz continued to note that the expectation is now that the full-year EBITDA is expected to be just below the guidance range that came late-September, assuming that conditions return to normal in the Rocky Mountains by the extended President’s Day weekend – February 13 through February 16 this year. Could a return to the norm be possible in Colorado? Right now, significant snow isn’t on the radar through at least February 2, with longer-term outlooks from the National Weather Service showing the likelihood of warmer-than-normal temperatures in Colorado’s mountains through at least February 13.

One likely silver-lining for Vail Resorts is that their push to get visitors on season passes opposed to lift tickets in recent years could presumably provide a bit of a financial buffer for seasons when the snow is lacking. It’s probably easier for someone to decide to head to the mountains despite bad conditions knowing they’ve already spent money on the pass. Additionally, the pre-season purchase of a pass means that people are spending money regardless of whether they’re visiting a resort or not. That said, it will be interesting to see if the lack of snow this season has a longer-term impact on the decision to purchase a season pass moving forward, with that same lack of snow potentially shining a light on the risk out-of-staters face while planning a pricy trip to the mountains months ahead of time.

It’s also worth noting that Vail Resorts has seen its stock slide amid the lack of snow, too, down about eight percent over the last three months from a share price around $152 to $140, at time of reporting.

All this to say, Colorado’s ski industry and the towns that are supported by it are likely facing pretty serious financial impacts due to the lack of snow, and the Vail Resorts investor report is just one glimpse into the bigger situation. Fewer winter slopesport enthusiasts headed into the mountains inherently means less money spent at gas stations along the way, fewer hotel bookings for a weekend ski trip, and a smaller number of patrons walking into a restaurant, with many of these establishments likely relying on the winter season and the tourism boom it brings to Colorado as a key part of their bottom line. Indeed, the trickle down of less mountain travel can be immense.

Ski areas, weekend warriors, and powderhounds, alike, should all keep their fingers crossed in hopes of better snow in Colorado.

Find the full Vail Resorts investor report here.

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