Five statistics to know before betting on Week 9 in the NFL
The NFL heads into the back end of the 2020 season with one of the more evenly distributed sets of games we have had to date. Five games kick off in the early window Sunday with six on tap for the late start. It is going to be a great week for NFL betting. Finding and using advanced stats is essential to being successful in the long run, and that is what we have for you each and every week.
Here are five must-read stats to know before betting on Week 9 in the NFL.
1. The Los Angeles Chargers have gone over the total in five straight games
The Chargers averaged just 17 points per game through the first three games and their defense was giving up just an average of 19. From Week 4 on, this offense has exploded. Rookie Justin Herbert has averaged three touchdown passes a week and the Chargers have put up an average of 31 points per game since. The defense during this time has become leaky, giving up an average of 32 points per game. They face a Miami Dolphins team this week that is on a four-game winning streak with an average score over 32 points per game during the run. The total opened at 50 and moved down, making the over even more attractive than it was earlier in the week.
2. The Texans run defense is ranked 29th in DVOA
The opponent-adjusted run defense for the Texans is one of the worst in the league. They have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. That is not a good sign given the matchup this week. They take on a Cleveland Browns team that averages just shy of 30 rushing attempts per game, eighth-most in the league. The Browns are also expected to welcome back Nick Chubb for this game. When both Chubb and Kareem Hunt were healthy, they were running it over 34 times per game. The Ravens are the run-heaviest team in the league this season at 33.2 attempts per game to give you some context on how heavily the Browns leaned on the run when both backs were healthy.
3. The unstoppable force meets the immovable object in Los Angeles
The Seattle Seahawks have played to the over in six of eight games with final scores that combine to average just shy of 65 points. They lead the NFL with an average of 34 points per game. They have scored at least 27 points in every game this year. They face a Los Angeles Rams team that has allowed the second-fewest points in the league at just 19 per game. The Rams average total is 47.5 and they have gone under that in six of eight games.
4. Can the Broncos offense break out this week?
Denver’s offense is ranked 29th in the league in DVOA, 20% below your league-average offense in terms of productivity. Luckily, it faces the Las Vegas Raiders, who have the third-worst defense in the NFL. The 28.6 points per game the Raiders give up has them currently in the bottom quarter of the league for points allowed. The Broncos have scored over 21 points in just three games this season, but those three games were against other bottom-tier teams in the Chargers, Falcons and Jets, who rank, respectively, 21st, 23rd and 27th for points allowed.
5. Can New England score 20 points?
The Baltimore Ravens have the stingiest scoring defense in the league by a wide margin. They allow just 17.8 points per game, 1.2 points better than the second-place Rams who are the only other team allowing under 20. The Patriots average the fifth-lowest point output at just 20.8 per game. That number is also buoyed by three games where they scored 30-plus points against the Jets, Seahawks and Raiders, who are ranked 28th, 24th and 28th on defense. The Ravens are the highest-ranked defense the Patriots have faced so far. If you back out the three big games against bottom-quartile defenses, the Patriots average a mere 14 points per game in their other contests.




