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Three player prop bets to consider when betting on the NFL in Week 11

After an action-packed weekend in Week 10 that saw the NFL competing side-by-side with the Masters for the attention of sports fans, we’re back to our regularly scheduled programming in Week 11 with a full slate of NFL games and a heap of player props to exploit. Three of my favorites for Sunday are listed below.

All betting odds are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Diontae Johnson OVER 56.5 receiving yards (-143)

While his season has been a bit of a rollercoaster due to nagging injuries, there’s no denying the production when healthy. In his five fully healthy games this season, Johnson has logged 10-plus targets and six or more catches in all five, while topping 75 yards in all but one (where he went for 57). Seeing that he has a clean bill of health heading into Week 11, his 56.5-yard prop feels low. He should have a field day against Sidney Jones and the Jags secondary, who’s getting targeted at a 19% clip with the overall secondary allowing the fourth-most receiving yards on the season, as well as the fourth-most receiving scores (19).

Jamaal Williams OVER 11.5 receiving yards (-134)

Understanding Williams is not the starting running back, this line is still way too low. Williams has logged multiple targets in five games this season and in every single one of those games, he’s logged at least 21 receiving yards — almost double his current prop. He’s seen at least four targets in four of his last five games and while the matchup with the Colts is an overall tough draw for the Packers, they’ve allowed over four receptions per game to running backs. Aaron Jones is sure to draw some attention in the passing game as well, but this prop is low enough where one solid reception could hit the over.

Jakobi Meyers OVER 4.5 receptions (-143)

Quickly emerging as one of Cam Newton’s favorite targets, Meyers has averaged 6.8 receptions and 86.5 yards on 9.3 targets per game over his last four games, accounting for over 40% of the target share. While the absence of N’Keal Harry obviously bolstered the production of Meyers, it was evident that Newton is persistent on keeping Meyers involved, as he was able to garner seven targets last game, which actually accounted for every single wide receiver target for the Patriots in that game. The Texans will likely send Bradley Roby into shadow coverage against Meyers, but he’s still allowed 20 of 30 targets to be caught for 190 yards and three touchdowns. The volume as well as the exploitable matchup put Meyers in a prime position to smash this prop.

Patriots wide receiver Jakobi Meyers warms up before a Nov. 1 game against the Bills in Orchard Park, N.Y. (The Associated Press)
Patriots wide receiver Jakobi Meyers warms up before a Nov. 1 game against the Bills in Orchard Park, N.Y. (The Associated Press)


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