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Gambling: Bettor likes Pacers to cover, over vs. Bucks on Monday

The NBA has a reasonable eight-game slate on tap for Monday, which should serve as a perfect cure for the March Madness hangover from the opening weekend.

Below are a pair of bets that I love on Monday’s slate and they happen to come from the same game. Odds are from PointsBet, as they were the first sportsbook to post lines for the contest.

Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks

Pick No. 1: Pacers +10 (-110)

The Bucks have been playing better of late, winning nine of their last 10 games, but the Pacers are a respectable-enough team where a double-digit spread seems a bit extreme. While the Bucks beat the Pacers in their first meeting 130-110, their average point differential on the season is seven, while their plus/minus against the spread sits at -1.2. They’re 19-22 (46.3%) against the spread overall this season with Indiana sitting at 17-24 after an overtime win against the Heat.

The back-to-back may obviously hamper the Pacers and cause tired legs, but having the opportunity to add Caris LeVert back to the rotation to help Malcolm Brogdon and Domantas Sabonis and since his return, they’ve logged a 3-2 record with two of their three wins coming by double digits. This is more than enough to instill confidence in them avoiding a blowout.

Pick No. 2: over 232 points (-115)

The other major factor in thinking the Pacers cover the spread is the fact that they’ve averaged 117.8 points per game since LeVert returned to the lineup March 13, a 4.6-point jump from their season average (113.2). Similarly, over the Bucks’ last five games, they’ve averaged 124.2 points per game, a 4.7-point uptick over their season average (119.5). Given the fact that it makes sense that Indiana covers here, it makes sense to assume that this will be a back-and-forth, point-filled affair. Both teams also rank top-six in the NBA in over percentage, with the Bucks hitting the over in 60.0% of their games, and the Pacers hitting the over in 61.5% of their games.

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