Gambling: It’s all about the pitching for these Monday bets
The MLB season rolls along Monday with eight total games, giving us a full day of betting.
The difference in baseball compared to other sports is how the spreads (run lines) are measured. Unlike in other sports where the size of a spread can vary, baseball’s spreads are defaulted to 1.5 runs, with the odds being juiced one way or another. This makes targeting games before all the odds are up a bit easier, especially for the sake of these articles.
Below are two of my favorite bets for Monday.
Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins
The pick: Orioles ML (-105, William Hill)
I didn’t think the Orioles would be the bet of choice this early in the season, but here we are. Not only is their best pitcher (John Means) taking the mound, but they’re also facing off against a pitcher in Matt Shoemaker who has been a bit of a gas can this season.
In addition to his 6.08 ERA this season, Shoemaker is allowing over two home runs per nine innings and averaging a career-low 5.63 strikeouts per nine innings, which should help the Orioles’ offense that typically isn’t a team to fear (averaging under four runs). Being backed by Means also helps their case, as he’s one of six pitchers with a no-hitter this season and carries a strikeout rate north of 27% on the season.
San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers
The pick: Brewers ML (good until -110)
Blake Snell is typically not a pitcher that I go out of my way to attack (hence my avoidance of the run-line), but he’s the more attackable pitcher between him and Brandon Woodruff in this game. His 3.79 ERA is his highest mark since 2019 and much of it has to do with his command issues, as his 5.58 walks per nine innings is the highest mark of his six-year career.
On the other side of the mound, Woodruff has posted a 1.58 ERA (lowest of his career) while sporting a 0.47 HR/9 rate (career best) and a 30.5% strikeout rate, the second consecutive season over 30%. With both of these offenses being relatively disappointing this season, I’ll side with the more dominant pitcher when choosing the money line.