The third jewel of horse racing’s Triple Crown is up for grabs Saturday in the Belmont Stakes. Derby winner Medina Spirit is not going to be running after failing to take down the Preakness. In fact, only five horses who ran in the Kentucky Derby are wheeling back for the Belmont, and none of the ones who ran in both the Derby and Preakness are on that list.

Only two of the horses from the Preakness will be in the starting gate for the Belmont as well — the winner, Rombauer, is one of them, and the other is Japanese import France Go De Ina, who finished a well-beaten seventh in Maryland. That leaves only one new horse joining the mix: Overkill, who ran third last out in the Peter Pan after finishing second in another graded stakes race in his last start before that.

Unlike the Kentucky Derby and the 20-horse field we had to deal with, the Belmont Stakes has only eight horses. The morning-line favorite is Essential Quality at 2-1, but I doubt you get that price on him come post time. Essential Quality may go off closer to even money, or 6-5. He is a logical contender for this race. He finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby but was caught out wide on the turns and effectively ran a longer distance than other horses who were closer to the inside rail. He still managed to hang on and even finish stronger than some of his rivals, including a few that he will be facing again today.

The horse who beat him that day and is running back here is Hot Rod Charlie. Charlie is another horse with a big chance in this one. Essential Quality had the tougher trip in that race due to where he was positioned on the track, despite finishing behind Charlie in the Derby. Hot Rod Charlie is still a good horse and one with a shot to win here. At the very least, both have to stay in consideration for your exacta and trifecta tickets.

This race also offers two other short-priced horses, and they have completely different running styles. Rombauer is coming off a win in the Preakness. That was the perfect set up for a horse with his late running style to win. Rombauer stayed close enough to be able to kick home when the jockey asked him to switch it up a gear. He was aided by the fact the two horses he ran down to win were fighting for the lead all around the track and tired each other out a bit. Rombauer has a style that will often get him a piece of the purse. The problem with late running horses is they tend to need things to break down in front of them in order to take home the top prize.

The other horse with the opposite running style who should be in the lead early with the hope to hold on is Rock Your World. Rock Your World won the Santa Anita Derby before finishing 17th in a brutally bad trip in the Kentucky Derby. He projects as the horse who should grab the early lead and be in front unless he tires out or gets caught. The only other horse who prefers the front running style in this race is France Go De Ina.

Maybe we have not seen the best of him yet, but on paper he is slower than Rock Your World, and at best, will push the pace for half to three-quarters of a mile before ultimately giving way. If he does not challenge Rock Your World for the lead, we could see Rock Your World take the early lead and slow down the fractions enough to outkick anyone on the backstretch and steal the race. He is worth a wager if the odds drift up from that 9/2 morning-line price. If Essential Quality ends up going off at even money or 6/5, then you will likely get that higher payout on Rock Your World.

This is a wide-open race to some extent. That’s not because we have so many amazingly good horses, but more of the opposite. Rombauer lost to Essential Quality in the Blue Grass. He then came back and beat the winner of the Derby in the Preakness. That win for Rombauer makes me wonder about the Derby and the quality of the horses that ran in it. Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie were the two best finishers in the Derby running today, and those three are all solid, but unspectacular horses.

Rock Your World had a bad race in the Derby, but he is better than his showing there. Overlook and Known Agenda are two other horses I could not eliminate. I don’t think either is a standout winner, but they do factor in with a chance. Basically, the value in this race is going to come by fading the shortest-priced horses and looking for someone else to step up and win. In a race that I believe to be evenly matched and wide open, the last thing in the world I want to do is bet on the shortest-priced, chalkiest option available. I will still have exposure to Essential Quality underneath in my exacta and trifecta wagers, but this is a good race to spread bets around on the horses that drift up to double-digit odds from a single-digit morning-line number. When horses are this evenly matched and no one stands out, the price you get on race day is the most important factor to consider when choosing your winner. I like Rock Your World, Hot Rod Charlie, Known Agenda, and Overkill. Rombauer off the Preakness score and Essential Quality as the most logical horse are likely to take the big money, so whichever of the ones mentioned slips provides you with the best value for your buck.