The NBA playoffs have been a tough handicapping challenge for many this year. We have had a series where the home team lost every game, and others where home court advantage is all that mattered. We had some that played way above their average totals and others that were well short. Some even alternated game by game, which really is driving the recency-bias crowd nuts. We have seen multiple crazy fourth-quarter comebacks with teams down 15-25 points and somehow storming back to win those games.

Even down to the individual level, it has been tough to predict. One game Blake Griffin goes for a double-double with 14 rebounds and then he comes back to a game with three rebounds, but 17 points. The Clippers lose two games to the Jazz with Kawhi Leonard and then came back and beat them in Utah without him. How is anyone supposed to make any sense out of this?

Some things this postseason have been tough to predict. Some things every postseason are tough to predict. This is not a new phenomenon, despite what some of the talking heads and writers want you to think. In fact, it is a perfect example of why you should follow the saying: “Only bet what you know, not what you think.” The Phoenix Suns spreads were a good bet. The “Suns in four” guy was absolutely right. The series was never in doubt.

The Clippers/Jazz series is the complete opposite. Everyone thought the Clippers would win in Utah, and they were even favored to do so in one game. Then after Utah went up 2-0, everyone was expecting that series to be a cakewalk for Utah before LA started playing well. Then we had news of Kawhi Leonard not playing Wednesday. The spread ballooned up to Jazz -7. People were already discussing the Jazz playing the Suns without Chris Paul due to his COVID-19 restrictions. That’s when Paul George pulled a “Jordan Rules” and took all that talk personally.

What ensued was a shocking eight-point Clippers victory as a seven-point underdog on the road. Now they come back to LA for Friday’s Game 6. We are unlikely to see Kawhi play in this one, but I will not rule that out officially until the Clippers do. Recency bias aside, this should be a game that favors Utah, but trying to predict this series has been a nightmare.

Instead of betting on what we think, this is a perfect opportunity to bet what we know. We know that when Leonard is out, the biggest beneficiaries are Marcus Morris, Paul George and Reggie Jackson. Morris is especially interesting to me here. Not only does he average over 4 more points per game without Kawhi, but he also stands to benefit the most from the minutes bump. His prop number most of the series was around 10.5 with Kawhi. It should be more like 14.5 without him. Wednesday, you were able to get his scoring prop at 11.5 to 13.5 points depending on which book and when you bet it.

Morris had 10 first-half points and easily cruised past all prop numbers in the third quarter of the last game, so he’s at the top of the list for potential bets on Friday if Kawhi does indeed sit. George has been firing up 8-10 3-point attempts per game over the last three and his 3-point made prop has not moved off of 2.5. The payout has moved as it was up to -130 and climbed to -140 before tip on Wednesday. It did cash again for the third straight game, so this is another one I will be looking to get money down on for Friday.

In the other series, I refuse to bet on the moneyline or spread here. The 76ers blew a 25-point lead Wednesday in one of the worst meltdowns I have ever seen. Atlanta had no business winning that game. Yet it did, and now go home up 3-2 on the 76ers in that series. Again here though, we do have some things that we can count on. Joel Embiid touches the ball on almost every halfcourt possession the 76ers have. He has already had multiple monster scoring games in this series and is averaging over 28 points. More importantly, the Hawks realize this too and have been doubling him and forcing other guys to beat them. That is why Embiid has cashed the over 3.5 assists number at plus money three games in a row. This is one of those things we know, not think we know and therefore it deserves a wager.

The same can be said of Trae Young. He’s not only scoring a bunch, but also racking up assists in this series. His assists prop is a tad high, but I do think his scoring prop is interesting. The Hawks can’t win when he only scores 20. Young needs to be ultra-aggressive for himself and others as he was in Game 1 and the latter part of Game 5 to lead the Hawks to two improbable victories in those games. The 76ers have tried doubling him, switching him, putting bigger defenders on him, and none of that has worked. The Hawks want to avoid another flight back to Philly for a Game 7, so expect Young to come out firing and his point total to come in over the prop number. Remember, we do not get style points for the difficulty of cashing bets. If the numbers are fair and the payouts are solid, bet what you know is likely and you will have money to keep playing and a little profit to put back in your pockets.