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Gambling: Pace, care factor point toward the over in NBA Eastern Game 3

The Milwaukee Bucks answered their Game 1 loss in a huge way in Game 2 of the NBA Eastern Conference Finals, beating the Atlanta Hawks by 34 points to even the series. This series shifts to Atlanta on Sunday for Game 3, and while it gives the Hawks a chance to get back on track, it also gives us more chances to look at this series from a betting perspective.

It can be tough to really take a whole lot from Game 2 considering it was such an outlier blowout. Looking ahead, however, it appears this Game 3 is opening up with a 225-point total. I’m leaning toward the over for a few reasons.

For starters, Milwaukee is still playing at a blistering pace, ranking sixth in pace of play over the last six playoff games. And over the course of the entire postseason, the Hawks rank fifth in the NBA in pace, while Milwaukee is right behind them at sixth. And because the Bucks give up a ton of points from beyond the arc, that tends to lead to high totals, especially when both teams are getting out in transition.

Game 1 went over this mark and Game 2 certainly would have if the Hawks, you know, actually showed up. Back at home for Game 3, expect Atlanta to show up.

Focusing solely on Milwaukee, I’d look toward the under on Brook Lopez’s rebounding props. For starters, when he is on the floor, he is competing for rebounds with Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is averaging around 19 rebounding chances per game during the playoffs, good for the fourth-most in the league. As a result, Lopez is averaging just 11.6 rebounding opportunities per contest, while converting around 58% of those chances. Giannis, meanwhile, is averaging an insane 72% of his chances.

Secondly, Lopez’s minutes have been down so far in this series. In Game 1, Milwaukee went smaller to match the athleticism of the Hawks’ frontcourt. He only played 20 minutes and didn’t see any action in the final quarter. On Friday, Lopez played 23 minutes and while the game did get out of hand, Milwaukee’s other starters all played 26-32 minutes, so it is fair to wonder how many minutes Lopez will play going forward, especially with Bobby Portis becoming a larger part of the rotation as of late.

Shifting to the Hawks, I still like the over on John Collins’ rebounding props. He’s hauled in double-digit boards in five of his last six games, and it would have been six straight if Atlanta kept Friday’s game close. But he’s been very active, especially on the offensive glass and if Milwaukee continues to give fewer minutes to Lopez, their frontcourt becomes much smaller, making this a more advantageous matchup for Collins.

And even if Lopez does return to playing 33-35 minutes, that means Clint Capela likely has to guard him at the 3-point line, giving Collins more opportunities for uncontested rebounds.

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