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Porter leads Schiff in early look at possible California Senate primary: Poll

Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA) led Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) in a hypothetical 2024 matchup for Senate in California, according to a survey for Porter’s campaign.

Porter, who announced her candidacy for Senate Tuesday, topped Schiff 37% to 26% in a hypothetical general election matchup. Porter and Schiff are both Democrats but could face each other in November 2024 under California’s all-party primary system that advances the top two finishers to the general election contest. Schiff is not yet a candidate, and Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) has not revealed her 2024 plans.

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“In a head-to-head matchup, Porter leads Schiff significantly among Democrats, Republicans and independents,” Democratic pollster David Binder wrote in the polling memo. The survey of 600 likely voters, fielded Nov. 21-22 of last year, had an error margin of 4 percentage points.

Feinstein, 89, has yet to announce whether she will retire in 2024 or seek a sixth full term in the Senate.

But given her age, many Democrats eyeing a 2024 Senate bid expect Feinstein to call it quits after a prolific political career, and they are planning accordingly. Porter was the first high-profile Democrat to enter the contest, but she is not likely to be the last and moved to get a jump on the competition — especially given the nature of how California nominates candidates.

Katie Porter
Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA) speaks during a House Committee on Oversight and Reform hearing on gun violence on Capitol Hill in Washington, June 8, 2022. Porter is seeking reelection to California’s 47th Congressional seat in the Nov. 8, 2022, election. Andrew Harnik/AP

“California needs a warrior in the Senate — to stand up to special interests, fight the dangerous imbalance in our economy, and hold so-called leaders like [Senate Minority Leader] Mitch McConnell accountable for rigging our democracy,” Porter said in a Twitter post announcing her candidacy in a line of attack that also is a subtle dig at Feinstein, who has a history of working closely with Republicans on legislation.

Porter was elected to represent an Orange County House seat in 2018, a Democratic wave year. She narrowly won a third term in California’s redrawn 47th Congressional District in the 2022 midterm elections, holding off Republican Scott Baugh, 51.7% to 48.3%. Schiff, whom House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) is poised to remove from the House Intelligence Committee, where he has long served as the panel’s top Democrat, also is interested in a Senate bid.

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In the Porter poll, Binder also tested a hypothetical, all-party primary matchup with the names of Democrats who might, theoretically, join the campaign. In this contest, Porter edged Schiff 30% to 29%, followed by Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA) at 9%, Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) at 6%, and a generic Republican at 9%, with 16% undecided.

In the Porter-Schiff head-to-head, Porter topped Schiff among Democrats 44% to 39%, among Republicans 25% to 5%, and among independents 41% to 20%. Porter also led Schiff in the Los Angeles media market, California’s largest, 39% to 25%, although Schiff also represents a Los Angeles-area seat.

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Porter leads Schiff in early look at possible California Senate primary: Poll
Porter leads Schiff in early look at possible California Senate primary: Poll
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