Coming soon: Legally ‘rigged’ presidential primaries and caucuses | Cronin and Loevy

There has been a lot of talk about “rigging” elections in the United States lately. Former Republican President Donald Trump has argued that the 2020 presidential election was rigged so that current Democratic President Joe Biden won and Trump lost.

Most observers of American politics deny such rigging existed.

But get ready for even more rigging of U.S. elections. The 2024 presidential primary elections and caucuses begin in a week on Jan. 15, with the Iowa caucuses for the Republican Party.

We contend supporters of both Biden and Trump have rigged the upcoming calendar of primaries and caucuses to benefit their candidacies.

And all this rigging of presidential primaries and caucuses is legal.

Only the Republican Party is holding the traditional “first i the nation” Iowa caucuses in a week. The Democratic National Committee moved their Iowa caucuses to Super Tuesday, March 5.

One reason given for this change was that the Iowa caucuses were improperly operated in 2020 by those in charge with results unavailable until several days after the caucuses.

The reason we give for the Democrats canceling the early  caucuses is that the Biden forces thought they might lose. They therefore designated the first state in their official calendar of primaries and caucuses to be the South Carolina primary on Feb. 3.

Democrats figured Biden would win South Carolina, with its large pro-Democratic African American population, and start building momentum for winning future caucuses and primaries.

Momentum is what wins major political party presidential nominations.

But there is even more legal rigging going on with the Republican presidential primaries and caucuses. In our view, four Republican caucuses have been scheduled before Super Tuesday, all for the purpose of giving Trump easy headline-grabbing wins before the crucial Super Tuesday voting.

We call Super Tuesday crucial, because that is the day when 13 states hold Republican primaries and three have caucuses. Some of the states with primaries, such as North Carolina, Texas, California and Virginia, are highly populated.

With so many states and such a large number of convention delegates up for election on the same day, candidates want to win big on Super Tuesday. The heavy voting that day often determines which candidate gets the party nomination for president.

And candidates will do best on Super Tuesday if they have won several primaries and caucuses in the few days and the two weeks just before.

So, for the first time ever, three states have scheduled Republican caucuses in the three days before March 5: Idaho and Missouri on March 2, North Dakota on March 4.

Those states went for Donald Trump in the 2020 general election. They thus are likely to vote for him again in these three newly scheduled 2024 caucuses, and that will give Trump lots of momentum.

At this point, it is important to point out the differences between presidential primaries and presidential caucuses. All registered voters in a political party in a state can vote in a presidential primary. Some states, like Colorado and New Hampshire, also let unaffiliated voters participate.

Thus there are large numbers of voters participating in presidential primaries, and it takes them only about 30 minutes to go to their neighborhood polling place and cast their vote. It is even quicker in those states providing mail-in ballots.

Caucuses are quite different. Registered voters gather in a church hall or a school gymnasium. They may discuss the presidential candidates among themselves, and they may listen to speeches on behalf of the various candidates. After about one or two hours, caucuses voters cast their votes and go home.

Because presidential caucuses must be attended at a certain time and take a great deal of a voter’s time,  turnouts for caucuses are much lower, by far, than for  primaries.

The voters who will take the time to caucus are likely to be political activists and, in the case of the Republican Party, will tend to be strongly committed to “MAGA” ideas such as those espoused by Trump.

The large numbers of voters who participate in primaries, however, are likely to be more moderate and, therefore, more likely to vote for Trump’s more moderate opponents, such as former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, or former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.

Scheduling caucuses rather than primaries, so the thinking goes, tilts the electoral playing field in Trump’s direction.

Another example of legal fixing took place with the Nevada Republican caucuses, scheduled for Feb. 8. Nevada gave its political parties the choice of holding either a presidential primary or caucuses. The GOP chose to caucuses rather than a primary. Republicans’ choice in Nevada was probably made in order to benefit Trump, as explained above.

In addition to five caucuses, there will be four Republican primaries before Super Tuesday. That is going to be a lot of activity between Iowa in mid-January and Super Tuesday on March 5.

Here is the complete schedule:

Republican caucuses: Jan. 15, Iowa; Feb. 8, Nevada; March 2, Idaho; March 2, Missouri; March 4, North Dakota.

Republican primaries: Jan. 23, New Hampshire; Feb. 24,  South Carolina; Feb. 27, Michigan; March 3, District of Columbia.

March 5, Super Tuesday

The Democratic schedule is much shorter:

Primaries: Jan. 23, New Hampshire; Feb. 3, South Carolina; Feb. 6, Nevada; Feb. 27, Michigan.

Note: New Hampshire is holding its Democratic presidential primary without Democratic National Committee approval.

Having no serious or credible opponent, we expect Biden to win South Carolina, Nevada and Michigan.

We predict Trump will win all five of the early Republican caucuses — Iowa, Nevada (probably), Idaho, Missouri and North Dakota.

If Haley, Christie or DeSantis are going to win anywhere, it it will be in the primaries in New Hampshire, South Carolina, Michigan or District of Columbia.

It is the 2024 presidential primaries and caucuses. Enjoy watching them and seeing how they turn out.


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