Analyzing the NHL contenders, pretenders at quarter point of the season | NHL Insider

We’ve hit the quarter mark of the NHL season. And perhaps more so than other recent seasons, it’s hard to get a real read on who’s good and who’s not — other than the Colorado Avalanche, who are just steamrolling the NHL.

If the playoffs started today, six of the 16 teams that made it last season wouldn’t be in. There’s time for that to change, but it’s made for an exciting start to the season. Here are some takeaways from around the NHL:

Mushy middle

How many teams teams in the NHL can you actually say are great? The Avalanche are one and the Carolina Hurricanes feel like another. Beyond that, the league feels, as the kids say, pretty mid.

Twenty-two of the 32 teams currently sit between 22 and 24 points. That’s almost 70% of the league within just a few points of each other. The Atlantic Division has just one team with a positive goal differential. It’s not pretty.

The Avalanche want to take advantage of the fact the rest of the league doesn’t appear to be all that great. Expect Chris MacFarland to be aggressive (again) because of it.

Young stars take over

Sure, it’s Nathan MacKinnon and Connor McDavid atop the NHL scoring race, as expected, but the three guys behind them are Connor Bedard, Macklin Celebrini and Leo Carlsson. Then there is Matthew Schaefer on Long Island, doing things at 18 that very few defensemen have ever been able to do.

Chicago Blackhawks center Connor Bedard (98) and Chicago Blackhawks left wing Andre Burakovsky (28) on the bench during the third period of an NHL hockey game Tuesday, Nov. 18, 2025, in Chicago. (AP Photo/David Banks)

Exciting times for the NHL. It’s also evidence that in order to get elite talent, you must hit rock bottom. MacKinnon, McDavid, Bedard, Celebrini and Schaefer are all former No. 1 overall picks, while Carlsson went second. Sometimes it pays off being really bad as opposed to hanging around a playoff spot every year.

Oh (no) Canada

The worst team in the NHL resides in Canada (Calgary). Perhaps the two biggest underachievers are in Canada (Toronto and Edmonton). Montreal’s five regulation wins are the second-fewest in the league and Winnipeg gets outshot every night. Things aren’t looking great in Canada.

Edmonton has started slow each of the last two seasons and still made the Stanley Cup final, so it’s fair to expect the Oilers to turn it around. But the rest of the teams north of the border don’t look good. It doesn’t seem like their Stanley Cup drought will end this season.

What are the Dallas Stars?

Dallas sits second in the Central Division and should never be discounted, especially considering how the last two Colorado seasons have ended, but the Stars are a very confusing team. They’ve dealt with their share of injuries, but every single night, they’re out-shot and out-chanced. They’re finding ways to win, which isn’t a bad thing, but how sustainable is it when you’re a bottom-three possession team in the league?

Their power play is lethal and that alone should scare teams. But it is hard to get a read on exactly what that group is.

Only two ways to improve

One thing that’s become clear over the last year and a half is that if you want to get better, it’s not likely to happen via free agency. Players are staying put, with the likes of McDavid, Martin Necas, Adrian Kempe, Jack Eichel and many others opting to re-sign with their team as opposed to testing the market.

That means the only ways to get better are via trade or drafting really high. The top free agent set to hit the market next summer is Alex Tuch. Good player, but not someone that’s going to alter the course of your franchise, and certainly not someone you want to overpay to bring to your team.

Colorado Avalanche center Martin Necas (88) in the second period of an NHL hockey game Sunday, Nov. 16, 2025, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Barry Trotz is the worst general manager in the league

Trotz was a fantastic head coach, but that seems to be shielding him from a lot of criticism. Firing Andrew Brunette in Nashville isn’t going to fix that team. It’s a brutal roster full of older players, a lot of which were signed by Trotz as he tried to skip a rebuild. It’s going to be a while before the Predators are good again, especially if Trotz is still running things.

What I’m hearing

  • Zakhar Bardakov recently gave an interview in Russian where he admitted he asked his representation to talk to the Avalanche about his ice time, or lack of, for that matter. I understand the frustration, seeing as how he’s played more than 7 minutes in only three of his 14 games, but the team is rolling. Not sure how well complaining about ice time will go over with the staff and front office. If he’s worried about ice time now, what happens when Joel Kiviranta, Logan O’Connor and Valeri Nichushkin return?
  • With a compacted schedule, the Avalanche just aren’t going to practice a ton and most morning skates have been made optional. The team is prioritizing rest and video work over practice. They typically do that late in most seasons but that’s going to be the case all season in an Olympic year.

What I’m seeing

  • You won’t find me among the Mikko Rantanen haters. He was always good to me in the locker room. That being said, I would have suspended him for the hit the other night that almost made Patrick Roy pop a vein in his forehead. It was a dangerous play and you’d think the NHL would want to send a message, especially when it appears Alex Romanov is seriously injured. Rantanen isn’t a dirty player, but he does have his moments where you wonder what the heck he’s doing.
  • Excited to get an up-close look at this Blackhawks team on Sunday in Chicago. The Denver Gazette will be in attendance. Their underlying numbers are rough, but sometimes youth and good goaltending can get you to the postseason. I wouldn’t hate going to Chicago in April.

What I’m thinking

  • I will admit that watching the Avalanche every night spoils me. I tuned in for the Red Wings-Kraken game and barely lasted 10 minutes. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again — don’t ever take for granted that you get to watch two of the best players in the world every night in MacKinnon and Cale Makar. Teams would trade almost anything for one of them, let alone two.
  • That Sam Bennett contract looks a little ugly at the moment. You can’t let the Conn Smythe winner walk for nothing, but seven points in 19 games isn’t going to cut it.

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