Maybe Sean Payton was right after all.

The always-confident Broncos coach proclaimed in August that his 2025 team was among just a handful in his career with a real chance to win a Super Bowl. Now, fast forward four months later. Denver sits atop the AFC West at 10-2 with a shot to earn the No. 1 seed and first-round postseason bye.

“We respect the other teams in our conference,” Payton told reporters Sunday night at Northwest Stadium after a 27-26 win over the Commanders. “But certainly, we’re competing for it.”

The Broncos travel to face the lowly Raiders (2-10) on Sunday in Las Vegas. Denver is considered a 7.5-point road favorite. The Broncos will assume control of the AFC’s top seed away from the Patriots (11-2) with a win.

New England is on its bye week. The Patriots’ only losses were in Week 1 against the Raiders and in Week 3 against the Steelers. New England has since matched Denver with nine consecutive wins after respective 1-2 starts.

The Broncos and Patriots enter Week 14 as clear favorites to earn the No. 1 seed, according to Next Gen Stats, with Denver (48%) narrowly leading New England (36%). Their surest path to that coveted top spot is difficult but simple — just win out.

The Broncos travel to the Raiders (2-10), host the Packers (8-3-1) and Jaguars (8-4), visit the Chiefs (6-6), and play the Chargers (8-4) at home. Denver’s remaining strength of schedule (.542) is ranked No. 11 in the NFL.

The Patriots host the Bills (8-4), travel to the Ravens (6-6) and Jets (3-9), and play the Dolphins (5-7) at home. New England’s remaining strength of schedule (.458) is ranked No. 22 in the NFL.

The Broncos, at least on paper, have a more challenging road. But there is no lack of confidence in the locker room. It starts with quarterback Bo Nix. Tight end Adam Trautman said: “He’s just a gamer and he finds ways to fix things. I think that’s where all the confidence stems from and why we believe in him so much.”

Nix also set his goals higher than simply earning a top playoff seed.

“Our goal was to make a deep playoff run, and we’re clearly not there yet,” Nix told reporters at Northwest Stadium on Sunday. “We haven’t even had time to get there yet, so we’re gonna continue to battle (and) continue to fight. We have a great mindset in the locker room. Guys are really fighting and battling for each other. We love one another. It’s really an honor to be a part of this team.”