Mark Kiszla: Broncos’ road to Super Bowl begins with Bo Nix’s hands under rump of center Luke Wattenberg
Why wait until the 25th day of December, when Bo Nix and Sean Payton need to start unwrapping their shiniest presents now?
All I want for Christmas is a Broncos offense that scares somebody.
Despite its 11-2 record, Denver will take the field Sunday in its home stadium, with too many Cheeseheads populating the stands and the Green Bay Packers listed as 2.5-point favorites.
“I don’t really care,” Nix said Wednesday. “My mom thinks we’ll win, so that’s all that matters.”
While the quarterback’s pithy soundbite was destined to go viral as soon as his words left Nix’s mouth, I’m here to tell you what really does matter.
These Broncos have matured into a contender ahead of schedule, but their Cinderella run toward the Super Bowl is destined to end unless they change their ways in one important way.
Explosive plays.
The Denver offense doesn’t make them.
The Broncos don’t devour the field in 20-yard chunks. At least not with any regularity, unless Marvin Mims gets his mitts on a punt to return.
The Broncos rank tied for 17th among NFL teams in the percentage of their offensive snaps that result in big, momentum-swinging gains.
Denver’s explosive-play rate is an unimpressive 5.3 percent, according to the statistical mavens at Sharp Football Analysis.
The only NFL teams above the playoff cutline with a worse explosive play rate percentage than the Broncos are Jacksonville, Houston, Pittsburgh and San Francisco.
Yes, Nix is clutch in the fourth quarter.
But he’s no John Elway, who was never afraid to pull the trigger and fire away with the baddest passing arm of his generation.
Nix is the king of dink and dunk. He ranks 28th among league quarterbacks at 6.3 yards per attempt.
On offense, the Broncos average a very meh and unintimidating 2.1 points per possession. They are too dependent on a stingy defense and fourth-quarter miracles.
That kind of nose-to-the-grindstone efficiency works against the lowly Las Vegas Raiders, whom Nix killed with 1,000 paper cuts during a 24-17 victory, when he led two methodical, clock-devouring touchdown drives of 80 and 91 yards.
While playing complementary football to the Denver defense is a solid strategy to win regular-season games, a slow slog is a tough way to survive on the long and winding road to the Super Bowl.
Playoff games are won on big swings that feel like knockout punches.
The Broncos went on the road to Buffalo in January and stubbornly refused to fold until Bills quarterback Josh Allen hit a 24-yard touchdown pass to Ty Johnson late in the third period to ignite a 31-7 beatdown.
With a 21-9 record, Nix has quickly won his stripes in this league and earned the trust of Payton by avoiding sacks, interceptions and the mistakes of youth that plague many inexperienced NFL quarterbacks.
Nix is the consummate game manager, which shouldn’t be a pejorative term. Football is a violent sport, so more power to any QB who can manage that chaos.
When a defense gives a quarterback the wrong look to maximize the potential of a play, Nix said, “You have to minimize the damage.”
Nix, however, has won the right to color outside the lines.
In 72 offensive snaps against the Raiders, not a single run or pass by Denver went for as much as 20 yards.
That ain’t going to cut it in the playoffs.
But I’m here to help. How?
Let’s start by taking note of the Broncos’ biggest gainer in Vegas, when 245-pound fullback Adam Prentice rumbled 18 yards in the third quarter. The play began with Nix taking the snap under center.
I have seen the future of this Denver offense, and it is with Nix taking snaps not from the gun, but doing it the old-school way, with his hands firmly under the rump of center Luke Wattenberg.
In the gun, Nix too often seems at a loss about what to do with his feet. He gets antsy, doesn’t climb the pocket calmly.
But under center, he finds rhythm, whether he’s handing off to RJ Harvey running at him with momentum toward the line of scrimmage, or turning and quickly popping to a receiver breaking out of his route.
Against Las Vegas, the Broncos used Nix under center more extensively than in any game this season. Maybe it was a one-game strategy. I hope not.
Nix taking snaps under center filled me with a deja vu vibe, harkening back to the prime of Jake Plummer doing Snake things.
The Broncos need more play calls that bring a sense of eager anticipation to the huddle, which receiver Courtland Sutton describes as the payoff when “you’re searching for that money look.”
Payton regularly makes fun of himself for reaching too early for the best calls on his playsheet, like an anxious kid shaking presents under the tree on Christmas Eve.
But with Nix taking snaps under center, the coach and his quarterback have discovered some football magic sprinkled with pixie dust.
So why wait?
Rip off the bow to that package and watch Bo go.




