The Denver Gazette’s Chris Tomasson gives his scouting report for Sunday’s AFC Championship Game between the Broncos (15-3) and Patriots (16-3) at Empower Field at Mile High.

Offense

All eyes will be on Broncos quarterback Jarrett Stidham, who takes over after Bo Nix broke his right ankle in overtime of last weekend’s 33-30 playoff win over Buffalo. Stidham tore up the preseason against reserves, but he hasn’t thrown a regular-season pass since the 2023 finale, which was most recent start. The Broncos will look to establish the run to take pressure off Stidham but starter RJ Harvey has been erratic. With receiver Troy Franklin questionable with a hamstring injury, Marvin Mims will look to again step up. Patriots quarterback Drake Maye has been in the MVP conversation in his second season but has had some issues with two interceptions in playoff games. Wide receiver Stefon Diggs bounced back well from having a torn ACL in 2024 with Houston to having a 1,000-yard receiving year. Denver bypassed running back TreVeyon Henderson in the first round of the draft and he responded with 911 yards rushing after being a second-round New England pick.

Advantage: Patriots

Defense

After being second in the NFL in total defense during the regular season, the Broncos didn’t play up to that standard against the Bills, allowing 449 yards. They were saved by forcing five turnovers while having just one on offense. Nickelback Ja’Quan McMillian, long underrated, might not be any more after saving the game with a dramatic late interception. The Broncos got 1.5 sacks and a fumble recovery against the Bills by Malcolm Roach, who might be the NFL’s best reserve defensive lineman. The Patriots have an underrated defense, having ranked No. 4 in the NFL in points allowed. Cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez and Marcus Jones made the Pro Bowl. Although Jones made it as a punt returner, he had three interceptions in the regular season. The Patriots will be without outside linebacker Harold Landry, who had a team-high 8.5 sacks, but linebacker K’Lavon Chaisson, who had 7.5, is formidable.

Advantage: Broncos

Coaching

Denver’s Sean Payton is two victories away from being the first coach in NFL history to win a Super Bowl with two different franchises. He hoisted the Lombardi Trophy with New Orleans in the 2009 season. With Nix out, Payton faces one of the biggest challenges in his 18 seasons as a head coach. He will make adjustments to take advantage of Stidham’s skill set and will have some trick plays to pull out if needed. He is coaching in his fourth conference title game. New England’s Mike Vrabel is a defensive specialist who has carved out an impressive .586 winning percentage in seven seasons as NFL head coach. He took Tennessee to the AFC Championship Game in 2019 and the Titans led Kansas City 17-7 in the second quarter before losing 35-24. In his first season with the Patriots, Vrabel is a leading candidate for NFL Coach of the Year. Vrabel won three Super Bowls as a New England linebacker and now will try to claim one as a coach.

Advantage: Broncos

Intangibles

The Broncos have won 14 of their last 15 home games and are 4-0 against the Patriots at home in the playoffs. But the Patriots are a 3.5-point favorites due to Nix being out after having led Denver to numerous comeback wins. The Broncos have the advantage of playing at altitude but the extreme cold weather won’t be an advantage for them. The Patriots regularly have played in low temperatures while the Broncos had a regular season with unseasonably warm weather at home games. Both teams are very hot. Denver has won 14 of their last 15 games after a 1-2 start and New England has won 15 of 16 after also being 1-2. While the Patriots have outscored foes in the regular season and playoffs by an average of 10.3 points per game, the Broncos have outscored their opponents by just 5.2 points per outing.

Advantage: Patriots