The numbers behind Colorado State’s Mountain West struggles | College Basketball Insider
Where have you gone, pre-Christmas Colorado State?
A sad college basketball state turns its lonely eyes to you.
Almost everything was going well two months ago in Ali Farokhmanesh’s first season. They had just knocked off rival Colorado in front of a sold-out crowd at Moby Arena to move to 7-2, a week or so after winning two out of three games against tough competition at the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament.
It felt like CSU hadn’t missed a beat in the wake of Niko Medved’s departure to Minnesota and with Nique Clifford off to the NBA as a first-round draft pick. The Rams had a winning formula led by 3-point shooting and looked like one of the top teams in the Mountain West heading into conference play and a potential NCAA Tournament team for a third straight season.
Since then, the Rams have fallen apart. CSU is 3-8 in Mountain West play, dropping five of its last six with the lone win in that span coming against an Air Force team that is one of the worst teams in college basketball.
A 68-57 defeat last Saturday at Wyoming was rock bottom. The Rams made four of 23 attempts from 3-point range, their worst shooting game so far, and were generally pushed around at the home of arguably their biggest rival.
“It makes it really hard when you’re missing shots,” Farokhmanesh said afterward. “We gotta be tougher in the paint. I thought they were really physical with us and we got knocked off balance.”
That’s been the M.O. for stopping Farokhmanesh’s team for weeks now.
What was once a top-20 offense in the country, per Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency rankings, and the top 3-point shooting team nationally has been neutralized by physical, in-your-face defense in Mountain West play.
The Rams’ points per game average has dropped from 85.7 to 75.6 over the course of their first 11 conference games. They rank seventh in the Mountain West in 3-point shooting over that span (33.9%) and are allowing their opponents to shoot slightly better (37%) from beyond the arc.
They’ve made fewer than 10 3-pointers in eight of 11 conference games and have a record of 2-6 in such games.
They’re also one of four teams in the conference with a negative rebounding margin. They’re above only Air Force in turnover margin.
That’s a recipe for losing basketball games.
“We gotta look in the mirror a little bit and realize people scout us at a high level,” Farokhmanesh said. “That’s what the Mountain West is. You can’t just rely on what’s worked for you in the past. You gotta adjust to what’s happening to you and your game, also.”
Can the Rams do so at this point of the season, though?
Farokhmanesh and his staff built this roster with the idea of playing the way that worked for years, dating back to Medved’s arrival in 2018. Early in the season, it worked. But the Mountain West caught on and now CSU looks like a team that doesn’t feel confident in the way it wants to play, either.
“It looks like it. That happens. That’s the ebbs and flows of sports,” Farokhmanesh said. “There’s ups and downs and you can’t buy into that and you gotta remember who you are and what you do every single day. It’s hard sometimes to remember that, in those moments, but all these guys put in plenty of time.”
While a trip back to the NCAA Tournament is out of the picture, barring an unlikely run at the Mountain West conference tournament, Farokhmanesh and his group have time on their side. There’s still a month left to turn around what is beginning to feel like a lost season.
Maybe just seeing a few 3-pointers go down again will help.
“We gotta get our mojo back,” Farokhmanesh said.
The list: Top 5 teams in the Mountain West
- Utah State
The Aggies made a statement over the past week. After coming from behind to beat San Diego State at home, then dominating New Mexico on the road, Utah State has the best case as the top team in the Mountain West. Year two for Jerrod Calhoun has been just as successful as year one. The Aggies are the only team on a fast track to March Madness, regardless of what happens next month in Las Vegas.
- San Diego State
It’s hard to know what to make of the Aztecs. It’s not a surprise that Brian Dutcher’s team is tied atop the conference standings, but how they’ve gotten here is somewhat puzzling. After a disappointing nonconference schedule, SDSU has rattled off 10 wins in 12 Mountain West games despite not having one clear go-to player and with 11 players in the regular rotation. One thing is the same, though, with Dutcher’s latest team: they play hard.
- New Mexico
The Lobos have overachieved, relative to outside expectations, in Eric Olen’s first season. The man who left UC San Diego after a magical run took over a UNM team that returned 0 minutes from a squad that made the round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament. The Lobos play efficiently on both ends and are led in scoring by Jake Hall, an under-recruited freshman from the San Diego area.
- Grand Canyon
The Lopes have stormed into the Mountain West and looked every bit like the program Bryce Drew has turned into an annual NCAA Tournament team. A Dance ticket won’t happen without a conference tournament title, but GCU looks like a contender in the league thanks to a veteran roster getting the most out of every addition Drew made to the team in the offseason.
- Nevada
Despite losing every major contributor from last year’s team, Steve Alford has turned things around with the Wolf Pack and built a team capable of competing in the Mountain West. Nevada’s only losses in conference play are against the top three teams in the Mountain West and a heartbreaker in overtime this week at Boise State.
Mid-Major Minute
What’s going on in the WAC, again? In a stunning power play, the conference has decided to punish outgoing member Utah Valley for what the WAC feels is unpaid exit fees of $1 million. So the WAC has made the Wolves ineligible from competing in its conference tournament and has now taken their games off the air. The WAC is essentially turning into the United Athletic Conference this summer, with three of seven remaining programs merging with a few members of the Atlantic Sun Conference and Little Rock. It seems awfully petty to punish the best remaining program and a potential NCAA Tournament team in a way that really only hurts the current student-athletes.
Upset of the Week
Portland 87, No. 6 Gonzaga 80
One of the biggest upsets in WCC history took place Wednesday. For the first time since 2014 and as 22.5-point underdogs, the Pilots took down the big, bad Bulldogs from Spokane and ended their 15-game winning streak. It was Portland’s first win over a top 10 team. Aurora Overland graduate Graham Ike had 24 points and 10 rebounds for Gonzaga.
Going Overseas
Sticking with the CSU Rams theme today, let’s spotlight a former standout who improved quite a bit in two seasons under Medved and Farokhmanesh in Fort Collins. Patrick Cartier is in his second season in Europe after helping the Rams to the NCAA Tournament in 2024. The big man from Wisconsin is currently playing for BC Zielona Góra in the top Polish league and averaging 9.7 points and 3.2 rebounds across 19 games.