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Colorado voting patterns — 2020 | Cronin and Loevy

Colorado has lost its most favored presidential election ‘battleground state” status just as our home teams seem to have lost their ability to beat the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Dodgers.

Yet this didn’t deter Colorado voters. Nearly 3.3 million of us voted, with more than 400,000 more Coloradans voting than four years earlier. A remarkable 86% plus of registered active voters turned out.

Mail-in-voting matters! The heated and sometimes ugly Cory Gardner-John Hickenlooper U.S. Senate race doubtless also spiked voter engagement.

Here are a few highlights. It was a big win for Democrats. Four major Denver suburban counties moved so strongly blueward that it appears Colorado Democrats will, like the Dodgers and the Chiefs in their leagues, dominate for at least the next few seasons.

Note this trend over the past five presidential elections. The Republican share of the statewide two-party vote has been as follows: 52.4% in 2004, 45.4% in 2008, 47.3% in 2012, 47.3% in 2016 and 43.1% in 2020. That’s a 9.3% shift.

Most of our 64 counties predictably lean one way or the other, but the majority trended more Democratic this year. Only four counties flipped. Pueblo, Garfield and Chaffee voted for Donald Trump last time but flipped to Joe Biden this year.

Alamosa County flipped the other way, voting Democratic last time but Republican this time around (50.4% for Trump).

In this year’s election, 10 out of our 12 poorest counties (in terms of family income) voted for Trump; 10 out of 12 of the richest counties voted for Biden. This has been an emerging trend in Colorado and the nation — and perhaps a local variation on the theme put forward by J.D. Vance in his best-selling 2016 memoir “Hillbilly Elegy.”

Back to the metro Denver story. The pivotal Denver suburban counties were Adams (north and northeast), Arapahoe (south and southeast), Jefferson (west) and Broomfield (northwest).

In the meantime, Denver and Boulder continue to be the Democratic powerhouses in Colorado. Larimer County (Fort Collins) moved solidly Democratic. Pueblo County (Pueblo), at one time reliably Democratic, could not make up its mind as to which political party it preferred.

Political scientists consider 55% to 60% a “Big Win” and 60% plus a “Landslide.” Biden won Adams County with 58.4% of the two-party vote (Big Win), Arapahoe County with 62.7% (Landslide), Broomfield with 64.1% (Landslide), and Jefferson with 59.5% (Big Win).

From the 2016 election to the 2020 election, Trump’s percentage of the vote statewide in Colorado dropped 4.2 percentage points. In three of the four Denver suburban counties, Trump lost even more: in Arapahoe the loss was 4.9 percentage points, in Broomfield it was 6.2, in Jefferson it was 5.8.

This year, Biden defeated Trump where it counts the most — the Denver suburbs. It was bad enough for the Republicans that the four Denver suburban counties went strongly Democratic. Adding to GOP woes was a decline in the usual performance of Republican voters in Douglas and El Paso counties.

Douglas County reported in at 53.7% Republican, down 6.2 percentage points from 2016 and 13.3 percentage points from 2004. El Paso County came in at 55.6% Republican — down 6.8 points from 2016 and 11.9 points from 2004. That 6.8 percentage point decline in the El Paso County Republican vote from 2016 to 2020 was the largest drop for any major county in the state.

The one bright spot for the Republicans was Weld County (Greeley). It gave Trump a sizable 59.3% (Big Win) Republican vote.

It is sometimes easy to overlook Denver and Boulder counties because they are so consistently Democratic. In 2020, Denver went 81.4% Democratic, the highest Democratic percentage for any county in the state. Boulder County was close behind Denver at 78.9% Democratic.

Larimer County (Fort Collins), the home of Colorado State University (CSU), was Republican in the not-too-distant past, but this year it went 58% Democratic. Larimer County now joins the Denver suburban counties as reliably Democratic.

Normally Democratic Pueblo County surprised everyone in 2016 when it voted narrowly for Donald Trump at 50.3% Republican. In 2020 it jumped back Democratic at 50.9% Democratic, a shift of only 1.2 percentage points.

The place where President Trump and the Republicans are popular in Colorado is the rural agricultural counties, particularly out on the Eastern Plains. Cheyenne County (Cheyenne Wells) went for Trump by 88.3%, Baca County (Springfield) by 85.5% and Washington County (Akron) by 87.6%. The most Trump-friendly county was Kiowa County (Eads), which chalked up 89% Republican in the 2020 presidential election.

We also had eleven ballot issues on the ballot. Students of initiatives and referendums regularly note that there is usually a lot of ballot fatigue with fewer voters staying the course and voting on the issues. This was not the case this year in Colorado. We think that voting at home encouraged higher voting participation on ballot propositions. The generally liberal leaning results were doubtless due to the larger liberal and independent turnouts.

Of the eleven issues on the statewide ballot in Colorado in 2020, nine were approved by the voters. The two losers were limiting abortions and allowing paid managers and operators in charitable bingo parlors. The bingo issue was approved by a majority of the voters at 52.3% YES but failed to get the 55% required to change the state constitution.

Highlights on ballot issues

Amendment B — Property Tax Assessments (Gallagher)

A previous state constitutional amendment generally encouraged lower residential property taxes at the expense of increasing business property taxes. Despite the fact adoption of this amendment will inevitably lead to increases in residential property taxes, this tax change plan was popular all over the state, probably due to strong financial support from the Denver business community. Denver County voted 68.2% YES, along with Boulder County at 67.4% YES, and Eagle County (Vail) at 63.9% YES. Significant opposition appeared on the rural-agricultural Eastern Plains, with Cheyenne County (Cheyenne Wells) voting 61.5% NO and Kiowa County (Eads) voting 57.8% NO. Adopted 57.5% — 42.5%.

Amendment 76 — Be A Citizen To Vote

This amendment “clarified” that only citizens were allowed to vote in Colorado elections. Some observers interpreted it as being anti-immigrant and needless but these views seemed to only reach Colorado’s most liberal and Democratic voters. Among the few counties that voted NO were Denver at 55.3% NO, Boulder at 58.9% NO, Pitkin (Aspen) at 53.4% NO, and San Miguel (Telluride) at 55% NO. Adopted 62.9% — 37.1%.

Proposition 113 — Bypass the Electoral College

This debatable and controversial proposal allocates Colorado’s Electoral Votes in presidential elections to the national popular vote winner(if enough states agree with what many think may be an unconstitutional notion) rather than the Colorado vote winner. It seemingly favored the Democrats, who won the popular vote twice in the past 20 years but lost the White House to Republicans, who won in the Electoral College.

As expected, the vote followed closely along Democrat vs. Republican lines in Colorado. Denver voted 73.1% YES to lead all the habitually strong Democratic counties such as boulder, Pitkin (Aspen), Eagle (Vail) and San Miguel (Telluride). The Denver suburban counties scored in the mid-50 percents on the Electoral College issue: Adams at 56.5% YES, and Jefferson at 54.3% YES.

Right on cue, the major Republican counties opposed the proposal: El Paso County (Colorado Springs) 59.8% NO; Douglas County (Castle Rock) 57.8% NO; Weld County (Greeley) 59.8% NO. Rural-agricultural Colorado was very much against doing away with the Electoral College. Kiowa County showed the way at 85.7% NO. Adopted 52.3% — 47.7%.

Proposition 114 — Reintroduce Gray Wolves

Gray wolves (like the one that chased Red Riding Hood?) were to be reintroduced in Colorado west of the Continental Divide. State funds were to be used to reimburse farmers for cows and sheep lost to gray wolves.

As expected, this proposal was well received in populous parts of the state such as Denver at 66.3% YES and Boulder at 67.8% YES. It received narrow support in the Denver suburbs, with Arapahoe County at 53.5% YES and Jefferson County at 51.1% YES.

The strong Republican counties split over gray wolf reintroduction, with El Paso County (Colorado Springs) in support at 51.1% YES but Douglas County (Castle Rock) going 54.9% NO and Weld County (Greeley) tallied at 58.4% NO.

Not surprisingly, rural-agricultural counties on the west side of the Continental Divide with countless cows and sheep were strongly opposed. Delta County went 75.3% NO and Mesa County (Grand Junction) checked in at 69.5% NO. Adopted 50.5% — 49.1%.

Proposition 116 — Lower Income Tax Rates

Colorado is moving Democratic when voting for candidates and liberal when voting for ballot issues, but that did not seem to apply when it comes to cutting state income taxes. This untimely proposal to lower state income tax rates won support throughout the state, but particularly in the Denver suburbs: Adams County at 63.3% YES; Arapahoe County at 57.5% YES; and Jefferson County at 53.4% YES. Only Denver County at 54.5% NO and Boulder County at 60.1% NO and a few of the skiing counties provided much opposition. Adopted 57.9% — 42.1%.

Proposition 117 — Vote on State Fee Increases

This was a cousin to the Tabor Amendment, which was adopted in 1992 and required a vote on all tax increases. In response to the state legislature raising user fees instead of taxes, anti-tax forces in Colorado put this proposition on the ballot. It requires a vote of the people on all major state fee increases.

The Denver suburbs narrowly supported this proposal, but it won big in the three major Republican counties: El Paso County (Colorado Springs) at 61.1% YES; Douglas County at 59.1% YES; and Weld County (Greeley) at 59% YES. As usual, the major opposition was in Denver, Boulder, and the skiing counties.

With a citizen vote required on raising fees as well as a citizen vote required on raising taxes, the ability of the state legislature to control the state’s finances was further reduced. Adopted 52.5% — 47.5%

Proposition 118 — Paid Medical Leave

The proposed program would pay the salaries for mothers and fathers who stayed home with new babies. It also would pay for company employees to stay home to care for sick children or relatives. The costs of the state program would be paid from salary deductions from the employees and payments by the employers. Critics questioned whether the employee deductions and company payments would be sufficient to pay the high costs of the program, thus requiring a big money bailout from state taxpayers.

We were surprised by the popularity of this program with state voters. Denver supported it with a 74.7% along with Boulder at 71.7% YES. The Denver suburbs were on board with both Adams and Arapahoe counties going 61.4% YES. The most amazing development was lack of opposition in the major Republican counties. El Paso County (Colorado Springs) voted for it at 51.5% YES, as did Weld County (Greeley) at 50.2% YES. Douglas County (Castle Rock) voted 53% NO.

Only the rural-agriculture counties strongly opposed Paid Medical Leave. For instance, Washington County (Akron) on the Eastern Plains voted 71.8% NO. Adopted 57.7% — 42.3%.

In sum, Coloradans took voting this year seriously. Democrats and liberals prevailed in both candidate races and on most ballot measures. Turnup was way up. Young people turned out in record numbers. A number of voting patterns appear to be consolidating. Republicans have their work cut out for them. Yet Democrats at both state and national level should be warned that the incumbent national party typically loses support in midterm elections.

Political scientists Tom Cronin and Bob Loevy write regularly about Colorado and national politics and have been studying elections for at least five decades.

Political scientists Tom Cronin and Bob Loevy write regularly about Colorado and national politics and have been studying elections for at least five decades.

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