Pat Shurmur has another word for breakthroughs. Wins.

Amid a difficult start to the season, the Colorado offensive coordinator has faced the music — although he doesn’t pay attention to any outside noise — as the leader of a unit that has been at the forefront of the team’s struggles to finish games.

With punts on five of the first six drives last Saturday against Iowa State, it felt like the Buffaloes offense was headed for a similar performance that has them down near the bottom of the Big 12 in most statistical categories.

But the first time all season, a switch flipped at halftime. CU had just five offensive possessions in the second half and got points on three and picked up a crucial first down on the last one to kneel out a 24-17 win.

It wasn’t pretty — the Buffs failed to reach 400 total yards for the sixth time in seven games and had fewer than 30 points for the fifth time — but it was an encouraging sign for a program in desperate need of one.

“I think we’re getting better each game,” Shurmur said. “We always point towards consistency. I think when you watch us play, there’s things we’re doing a lot better than we did last year.

We’re on our journey. There’s reasons to be optimistic with this team. It’s a young football team that’s getting better.”

This might be the most important week of the 2025 season for the Buffs — and there’s no game at the end of it. It’s the first of two bye weeks for Deion Sanders’ team, and not only is it a chance to get healthy for a banged-up roster, but it’s a chance to build on one of the best wins of the Coach Prime era and turn things around in the final five games.

The Buffs have said for weeks that they believed they were close. They held leads of 10+ points in three of their four losses. A couple of plays go their way and they’re sitting at 5-2, and not 3-4, during this off week. But that doesn’t mean they can’t rip off a few wins in the final month to change the narrative drastically.

It won’t be easy, but the run doesn’t look nearly as daunting as it did before the start of the season. The first game back from the bye, at Utah, won’t be easy. But after that, it’s back-to-back winnable games at home vs. Arizona, then at West Virginia before another bye week.

Finally, CU closes with at home against an Arizona State team dealing with plenty of injury issues and then at a Kansas State team that is arguably the most disappointing in the conference this season.

Whatever happens in the final five games, Shurmur and quarterback Kaidon Salter will be at the center of it. A week after three poorly-timed interceptions at TCU, Salter didn’t turn the ball over against Iowa State and had his most explosive day throwing the ball against a Big 12 team.

The Buffs brought in Salter to hopefully bridge the gap between the Shedeur Sanders era and the Julian ‘JuJu’ Lewis era at quarterback, but also to pick up where last year’s team left off in terms of competing for a Big 12 championship. 

That ship sailed when two-touchdown leads against BYU and TCU were blown late, but that doesn’t mean all is lost. A shot at back-to-back bowl games for the first time in 20 years isn’t, though. If the Buffs are going to get there, it will be because of the unlikely pairing of Salter and Shurmur.

“The recruiting processes are quick sometimes, but (our relationship) is good and I think we’re on our journey and getting to know each other better,” Shurmur said. “I think he’s making more plays and being involved in less bad plays. I think that points to consistency, and he’s no different than the guys up front or the receiving corps or the running backs or the tight ends, we just have to keep practicing to get better at what you’re doing.”

King’s 5 Games to Watch

No. 17 Vanderbilt vs. No. 10 LSU (10 a.m. ABC)

Two losses are no longer a death sentence in the current era of college football, but you’d prefer to avoid a second loss for as long as possible. The winner of this week’s game in Nashville will remain an SEC and College Football Playoff contender, while the loser will have an uphill battle to regain that status. The Commodores’ extra week of preparation should come in handy against a Tigers team that lost its only other road SEC game so far this season.

King’s pick: Vanderbilt -2.5

No. 9 Georgia vs. No. 5 Ole Miss (1:30 p.m. ABC)

The Rebels are one of the few teams in the SEC that seem to have Kirby Smart’s number. The Bulldogs are 1-2 against Ole Miss under Smart, and none of those three games dating back to 2016 have been particularly close. These two teams are vastly different from last year’s matchup and Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin is likely going to make Georgia prepare for multiple quarterbacks ahead of the first of two road games against ranked teams.

King’s pick: Georgia -7.5

Arizona State vs. No. 7 Texas Tech (2 p.m. FOX)

The Red Raiders are just demolishing teams so far this season. They’ve won by an average of 35 points on the way to a 6-0 start that includes three wins over Big 12 teams by an average of 24 points. The Sun Devils should get standout QB Sam Leavitt back this week, but right now, it just seems like Texas Tech is in a class of its own in a conference that Arizona State came out of nowhere to win last year.

King’s pick: Texas Tech -7.5

No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 11 Tennessee (5:30 p.m. ABC)

For the first time in nearly 20 years, it’s the Volunteers who have owned the recent history in the Third Saturday in October rivalry. Tennessee has won two of the last three games against Alabama for the first time since 2004-06, but the Crimson Tide are red hot since the season-opening loss to Florida State. Kalen DeBoer’s team has ripped off five straight wins, including three against ranked opponents to begin SEC play.

King’s pick: Alabama -7.5

No. 15 BYU vs. No. 23 Utah (6 p.m. FOX)

The Holy War caps an epic Saturday of college football. After nine straight wins by the team from Salt Lake City from 2010-19, the team from Provo has won back-to-back meetings for the first time since 2006-07, including last year’s furious fourth-quarter comeback that sparked plenty of controversy following BYU’s walk-off field goal. Both teams are off to hot starts and view themselves as Big 12 title contenders. A win Saturday would go a long way to affirming that belief. 

King’s pick: BYU +3.5

King’s YTD record ATS: 17-18 (3-2 last week)

King’s Top 5 Heisman Candidates

1. Carson Beck, QB, Miami

All Beck had to do last week was sit on the couch and he was able to move up these rankings. With Miami off, the Hurricanes’ position as a title contender was solidified even further with losses by previous top-six teams Oregon and Oklahoma. Beck could benefit from a few big games on the stat sheet and he’ll have a chance to do that against a soft schedule the rest of the way, which should see Miami be heavy favorites in every game down the stretch.

2. Fernando Mendonza, QB, Indiana

There has been no more impressive win in 2025 than what Indiana did last week going into Autzen Stadium and doing what so few do in that stadium, taking down Oregon in somewhat dominant fashion. A pick-six was the Ducks’ only touchdown after the first quarter and that’s because Mendoza and the Hoosiers offense was so dominant outside of that one play. Indiana has undoubtedly taken a step forward after last year’s playoff appearance and Mendoza is the biggest reason why.

3. Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama

Maybe no one in the country has flipped the narrative in the span of about six weeks than Simpson. He looked overmatched in the loss at Florida State to begin the season and has been arguably the country’s best quarterback since. Simpson had another 200 yards and three touchdowns in Bama’s big win at Missouri last week and has a chance to move up even farther with another solid showing against a fourth-straight ranked opponent.

4. Makai Lemon, WR, USC

Over the past three games, Lemon has caught 28 passes for 371 yards and four touchdowns. He’s become arguably the country’s best receiver during a breakout junior season. If not for a last-second loss at Illinois, the Trojans might be viewed as one of the Big Ten’s best teams thanks to an explosive offense powered by the connection between quarterback Jayden Maiava and Lemon. 

5. Cameron Dickey, RB, Texas Tech

It doesn’t really matter what you did before; if you rush for over 200 yards in a single game, you immediately enter the Heisman conversation. With zero 100-yard games on his resume before last week, Dickey proved why Texas Tech is the cream of the crop in the Big 12 by racking up 263 rushing yards and two touchdowns in his team’s latest dominant win. If he continues to run the ball like he did last week, the Red Raiders offense will be impossible to stop.